Western alienation Persists Amid Pandemic

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca

Loleen Berdahl | Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy

Daniel Béland | McGill Institute for the Study of Canada

Haizhen Mou | Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy

Nick Carlson | University of Alberta

October 28, 2020

Introduction 

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic came at a unique juncture in Western Canadian history. A new form of western alienation had emerged in 2019, culminating in the rise of separatism (“Wexit”) in the aftermath of last fall’s federal election. This Research Brief compares results from two Viewpoint Alberta surveys – one in November 2019, and another in August 2020 – revealing the extent to which the international health crisis has affected Albertans’ attitudes towards the rest of Canada, and their perceived place within Confederation. 

While the intensity of Albertans’ discontent with the rest of Canada has declined, significant disaffection remains. These feelings are structured along ideological and partisan lines, such that those on the right and supporters of the UCP continue to be more disaffected than those on the left and New Democrats. Overall, the November 2019 federal election appears to have been a high-watermark for Western alienation, but the tide has yet to recede markedly. 

Separatism in Alberta

Separatism reached a record high in Alberta following the re-election of the Trudeau Liberals in November 2019. It has since dropped 11 percentage points, from 29 to 18 percent (see Figure 1). The decline was most pronounced among Albertans on the far right (-26), UCP supporters (-21), people on the centre-right (-16), women (-13), white people (-13), rural dwellers (-13), suburbanites (-13), born-and-bred Albertans (-12), and baby boomers (-12). 

As in November 2019, support for separatism once again broke down along ideological and partisan lines. Those on the far right remained most likely to support separating from Canada (42 percent), while those in the centre (11 percent) and far left (8 percent) were least likely (see Figure 2). Over a quarter of respondents who identified as being UCP supporters expressed support for separatism (26 percent), compared to 10 percent among New Democrats (Figure 3). While the support levels remain higher than those seen since the early-1980s, support for secession has dropped since the heat of the 2019 federal election and with the onset of the pandemic. 

Belief in the likelihood of Alberta separating from the rest of Canada has also fallen over the past 9 months. In November 2019, 9 percent of Albertans believed secession was “very likely to happen” or “will happen”. This number fell to 5 percent in August 2020. Likewise, the proportion of Albertans who felt separation “was very unlikely to” or “never” happen grew from 68 percent to 76 percent. 

Respect and Treatment within Canada

While support for separatism fell considerably since the onset of the global pandemic, Albertans remain concerned about their place in Confederation. Nearly two in three (64 percent) feel the federal government treats Alberta worse than other provinces (Figure 4); this is down 6 percentage points from November 2019. Similarly, 69 percent of Albertans feel the province is not treated with the respect it deserves in Canada (Figure 5), down 5 percentage points. These feelings are strongest among Albertans who identify as UCP supporters, 88 percent of whom felt that the federal government treated Alberta worse and 89 percent of whom felt that Alberta was not treated with the respect it deserves (Figures 6 and 7). Over half of NDP supporters (56 percent) felt that Alberta was not treated with the respect it deserves, but 40 percent still felt the federal government treated their province worse than other jurisdictions. 

Feelings of ill-treatment tend to centre around fiscal federalism. 68 percent of Albertans feel that the province receives “less than its fair share” of federal spending (Figure 8), down 8 percentage points since November. Similarly, 63 percent of Albertans feel that Canada’s system of equalization is unfair to their province (Figure 9), down 7 percentage points since our last survey. 

Figure 9. Canada’s system of equalization payment is unfair to Alberta... 

Feelings About Alberta’s Future

Albertans appear slightly less upset about their place in Confederation than they did following the 2019 federal election. But tensions remain high. While over half of Albertans (51 percent) reported feeling somewhat or very angry about Alberta’s position within Canada in November 2019, that number decreased to 40 percent in August 2020 (Figure 10). Feelings of being frightened (43 percent, -7) and pessimistic (45 percent, -3) also fell, while positive emotions like optimism (35 percent, +3), excitement (25percent, +3), and contentment (24 percent, +4) rose slightly. 

We also asked respondents, “Based on what you’ve seen, heard, and/or read, do you feel the number of Albertans who are angry about Ottawa’s treatment of Alberta is increasing, decreasing, or remaining the same?” A full 72 percent of Albertans responded “increasing” (Figure 11), down 12 percentage points from November. Only 7 percent of Albertans felt the level of anger was decreasing, compared with 3 percent in our last survey. 

Finally, we asked respondents whether “Alberta’s best days are behind it.” Over half (51 percent) of Albertans agreed (34) or strongly agreed (17) with the statement, up 3 percentage points since November 2019 (Figure 12). This is a significant development in the history of western alienation. In decades past, many Albertans have felt like jilted partners in Confederation, but there was always a sense of optimism undergirding their disappointment. They felt held back. Now they appear to feel left behind. The fact that a majority now feel the province’s best days are behind it suggests a shift in the province’s political culture may be in progress. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between August 17 and 30, 2020. The survey was deployed online by the Social Sciences Research Laboratories (SSRL). A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/35rtU9F. SSRL co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 825 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl, Elaine Hyshka, and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.