Western Alienation in Alberta & Saskatchewan 

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca

Loleen Berdahl | University of Saskatchewan | loleen.berdahl@usask.ca 

Kirsten Samson | University of Saskatchewan 

May 3, 2021

Do residents of Alberta and Saskatchewan think differently when it comes to their province’s place in Confederation? Our May 2021 Viewpoint Survey asked over 800 people in each province about how they conceptualize regional identity, whether they feel alienated from the rest of Canada, whether they wish to separate and form an independent country, and how they want their governments to secure a fairer deal for their provinces in the federation. 

The results reveal as many commonalities as differences. Residents of both provinces have strong attachments to their provincial and national communities, and relatively low levels of separatist and so-called “firewall” sentiment. Both Albertans and Saskatchewanians appear to feel jilted about their relationship with the rest of Canada, but they’re more in the mood to build bridges with the rest of the country. However, Albertans tend to be far more negative in their views about their position in the Canadian constitutional family. 

Sense of Regional Identity 

Residents of both provinces demonstrate a high level of attachment to Canada and their home province (see Figure 1). Discussed later, this dual attachment may explain the reluctance among most Albertans and Saskatchewanians to support separatism and so-called “firewall” measures that would see their provinces withdraw from national programs like the Canada Pension Plan. 

Figure 2 depicts levels of attachment to national and provincial communities. In Alberta, attachment to Canada is highest among urbanites (97 percent), Liberal voters (93), NDP voters (92), and residents born outside the country (92). It is lowest among Wildrose Independence Party voters (63 percent) and rural Albertans (79).Meanwhile in Saskatchewan, nine-in-ten Liberal voters (96 percent) and women (90) feel an attachment to Canada. Conversely, only 68 percent of Buffalo Party voters and 76 percent of PC party voters report being very or somewhat attached to the national community. 

Not surprisingly, separatist party supporters in both provinces are most strongly attached to their respective provincial communities. A full 97 percent of Wildrose and 94 percent of Buffalo voters are very or somewhat attached to Alberta and Saskatchewan, respectively. That very high level of attachment extends to supporters of most other parties in Alberta, with affinity dropping below nine-in-ten among only NDP voters (78 percent). 

Attachment to provincial communities is also related to age and gender. In both provinces, over 90 percent of baby boomers are very or somewhat attached to their provincial communities, compared to much lower shares of millennials in Alberta (78 percent) and Saskatchewan (66). Generational differences in terms of attachment to Canada were also present, but less pronounced. 

In both provinces, women are also more likely than men to feel an attachment to their provincial and national communities. This gender gap ranges from 4 to 8 percentage points. 

Our Viewpoint Survey also asked respondents about their level of attachment to other regional communities (Figure 1). Four out of five Albertans and Saskatchewanians report feeling an attachment to the West, though this level is noticeably lower than their affinity for Canada and their home province. While more than half of Albertans (59 percent) and Saskatchewanians (51) are very attached to Canada, fewer than 40 percent in both provinces feel the same level of attachment to Western Canada. 

Of interest, Saskatchewanians feel a greater attachment to “the Prairies” than “Western Canada.” This level of attachment was equally strong across urban, rural, and suburban residents. Albertans do not share that same level of affinity for the Prairies, with only 70 percent of them sharing some level of attachment to the region. Urbanites in Alberta were least likely to identify as being part of the Prairies (67 percent), compared to nearly three-quarters of suburbanites and rural residents in the province (74 each). 

Sense of Alienation 

Albertans and Saskatchewanians have opposite outlooks on their home provinces’ place in Confederation over the next decade. Depicted in Figure 3, Albertans tend to be considerably more negative on this question than their Saskatchewan neighbours. Saskatchewanians are more contented (31 percent), excited (33), and optimistic (43) about their province’s position in Canada – both compared to Albertans and to their own negative perceptions of their position, including sense of fright (29 percent), anger (31), and pessimism (32). On the other hand, Albertans tend to be far more frightened (43 percent), angry (45), and pessimistic (48) than contented (24 percent), excited (25), and optimistic (35). 

We have been tracking Albertans’ attitudes on this question for the past sixteen months (Figure 4). Results reveal that their negativity about Alberta’s place in Confederation peaked in the aftermath of the November 2019 federal election, settling somewhat lower over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Each province’s unique economic and political trajectory may help to explain these diverging viewpoints (Figure 5). When asked whether their province’s best days were behind it, 46 percent of Albertans somewhat or strongly agreed – a figure that has remained relatively stable since late-2019 (Figure 6). This level of dissatisfaction compares with just 24 percent of Saskatchewanians who feel that their province’s best days are behind it. Our Viewpoint Survey reveals a similar pattern in terms of the national community. Albertans are more likely to agree (34 percent) than Saskatchewanians (27) that Canada’s best days are behind it. These findings suggest Albertans’ overall sense of pessimism about Confederation may be related to a sense that the province is falling behind relative to its former position among other provinces. 

Albertans and Saskatchewanians share more in common when it comes to specific questions of whether their provinces receive respect and fair treatment from the federal government (Figure 7). Whether related to representation of provincial interests, equalization, or spending, sizeable majorities of residents in both provinces feel jilted at the hands of Ottawa. 

Interestingly, Albertans’ attitudes have softened steadily on these issues over the course of the pandemic (Figure 8). More than three-quarters of Albertans felt that their province received “less than its fair share of federal spending” in November 2019, for instance. Since then, the number has fallen to 64 percent. Similarly, whereas 84 percent of Albertans reported that “the number of people who are angry about Ottawa’s treatment of my province is increasing” in 2019, 68 percent agreed as of March 2021. 

Support for Separatism 

While they may feel alienated, support for separatism remains low across most of Alberta and Saskatchewan. When asked a simple yes/no question on the topic, 18 percent of Albertans and 15 percent of Saskatchewanians support separating their respective provinces from Confederation (Figure 9). This level of support has remained stable in Alberta over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, down from a high-water mark of 29 percent following the 2019 federal election (Figure 10). 

Wildrose Independence Party voters think Alberta should separate from Canada and form an independent country, alongside 61 percent of Buffalo Party voters in Saskatchewan (Figure 11). In Alberta, 26 percent of United Conservative Party voters think the province should withdraw from Confederation. In Saskatchewan, one-fifth of Saskatchewan Party supporters feel their province should separate (20 percent). It is striking that such sizeable proportions of governing party supporters are favourable to separation. Separation is also popular among Alberta Party (37 percent) and Saskatchewan Progressive Conservative voters (20), although small sample sizes make generalizations difficult. 

Separatism is also directly related to peoples’ self-placement on the left-right political spectrum. Simply put, the further to the right Albertans and Saskatchewanians place themselves, the more likely they are to support separation (Figure 11). This correlation between far-right thinking and nativism has been well-documented in other Western democracies. Similar to patterns seen in the UK, for instance, above-average proportions of suburban and rural residents, whites, men, and members of Generation X report separatist sympathies in Alberta and Saskatchewan, as do people with high school or trades school education (Figure 11). 

Support for Fair Deal Measures 

As a follow-up to our March 2021 Viewpoint survey, we asked respondents from Alberta and Saskatchewan which measures their respective government should take to improve their provinces’ position in Confederation. We drew fifteen (15) proposed actions from the Report of the Government of Alberta’s Fair Deal Panel. Three (3) of these measures are found in the 2001 “firewall letter” – an open missive written by prominent Alberta conservatives urging then-Premier Ralph Klein to establish provincial institutions to replace the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), and the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA). Using scales from 0 to 10, we asked respondents to rate their level of support for each Fair Deal measure, as well as how important they felt the issue is. Full results are presented in Figures 12 and 13. 

Overall, Albertans and Saskatchewanians support and prioritize measures that build bridges with the rest of the country. In both provinces, “collaborating with other provinces to reduce trade barriers within Canada” was the most popular and important Fair Deal measure, followed by “reforming the Senate to make it more democratic,” and “securing more federal public service jobs and offices in Alberta/Saskatchewan.” Residents of both provinces also favoured “working with other provinces and stakeholders to gain tidewater access,” “adjusting the distribution of seats in the House of Commons to achieve one-person, one-vote,” and “reforming the federal stabilization program.” 

Conversely, the least popular and prominent Fair Deal measures concern building firewalls around Alberta and Saskatchewan. In both provinces, withdrawing from the CPP, RCMP, and CRA to establish provincial equivalents have more opposition than support (Figure 14). And more residents feel that the three issues are unimportant than feel these issues are important. 

The topic of “removing Section 36, which deals with the principle of equalization, from the Constitution Act, 1982” receives mixed reactions among Albertans and Saskatchewanians. While our Viewpoint Survey did not pose a straightforward “yes” or “no” question on the equalization issue, our data suggest the side favouring removing the principle from the constitution has a sizeable lead heading into the Alberta-wide referendum in October 2021. Forty-three (43) percent of Albertans support the action (Figure 15), which is 2 percentage-points lower than recorded in our Viewpoint Alberta survey in August 2020. Support for firewall measures have seen similar declines in support over this period. While levels of opposition are identical in Alberta and Saskatchewan (20 percent), support for removing Section 36 from the Constitution Act, 1982 is somewhat lower in the latter (36 percent). A greater share of Saskatchewanians are neutral on the issue (44 percent). Shown in Figure 16, the distribution of support for removing equalization from the constitution is clustered at the polls and centre of the ten-point spectrum. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021. The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley.  It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.