Viewpoint Saskatchewan: Vote Intentions and Partisan Identifications in 2021
Katelynn Kowalchuk | University of Saskatchewan
Kirsten Samson | University of Saskatchewan
Loleen Berdahl | Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy | loleen.berdahl@usask.ca
Jim Farney | Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy | jim.farney@uregina.ca
June 3, 2021
Saskatchewan’s political landscape is dominated by two major parties, the Saskatchewan Party and the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP). Following its mid-pandemic election win in October 2020, the Saskatchewan Party formed its fourth consecutive majority government – the first party to do so in sixty years. Shortly after, the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic overtook the province. This research brief is based on a Viewpoint survey in March 2021, five months following that historic provincial election. The brief asks: how have voter intentions changed since the 2020 provincial election? Does partisan identification vary based on household income? How do different demographic groups vote? How are party leaders perceived? What are the major issues for Saskatchewan people? Running parallel to similar research on Alberta, this is the first of the Viewpoint surveys that exclusively examines Saskatchewan, laying the groundwork for longitudinal research on voting trends across the western prairies.
Vote Intentions
Over one-third (35.2 percent) of respondents indicated that they would vote for the Saskatchewan Party if a provincial election were held today (Figure 1). This represents a 4.4 percent lead over the NDP, which garnered 30.8 percent support. The Progressive Conservative Party (6.2 percent), Liberal Party (5.3 percent), Green Party (3.3 percent), and Buffalo Party (3.8 percent) would receive comparable levels of support, averaging 4.6 percent. Another 15.1 percent of respondents would not vote if a provincial election were held today.
Figure 1. Provincial Party Vote Intention (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (N=800). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the question: “If a Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?”
Trends in Voter Retention
We compare respondents' vote choice in the October 2020 election to current voting intention to determine the migration of votes between provincial parties (Table 1). Table 1 illustrates the comparison of these variables. If an election were held today, the NDP would retain 88.5 percent of their votes from the October 2020 election. The Saskatchewan Party would retain 83.6 percent of their 2020 votes and gain 20 percent of 2020 Progressive Conservative voters, representing the only instance of vote migration over 10 percent. This migration would result in the Progressive Conservative Party retaining only 66.7 percent of their 2020 voters. The Buffalo Party represents the highest voter retention percentage of the six parties, with 92.3 percent of 2020 voters maintaining their support for if an election were held today. The Liberal Party would retain 81.5 percent of its 2020 voters, and the Green Party would keep 88.9 percent.
Table 1: Change in Provincial Party Vote Choice & Intention (October 2020–March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (N=800). Weighted data. Figures correspond to the respondents’ answers to the questions: “If the Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?” and “If you voted in the most recent provincial election held on October 26, 2020, which party did you vote for?” Columns may not total to 100 due to rounding, the omission of support for other parties, or indications of an unwillingness to vote.
Party Identification and Voting Intentions
There is an important distinction between vote intention and party identification. There are many reasons a respondent may not choose to vote for the party they identify with, including attitudes about the party leadership, strategic voting tactics, or other factors. The data suggest that those who identify with a provincial party are not guaranteed to vote for that party if an election were held today (Table 2).
The connection between party identification and vote intention appears to be strongest within the NDP, with around 9 out of 10 New Democrat identifiers (91.3 percent) stating that they would vote for the NDP if an election were held today. Additionally, 25.6 percent of respondents who identify with the Liberal Party and 13.3 percent who identify with the Green Party would vote for the NDP. This suggests that centrists and progressives who identify with minor parties are being drawn to the NDP when it comes time to cast a ballot. The NDP also draws some support from respondents who do not identify with any of the six parties, with 12.4 percent indicating that they would vote for the NDP.
On the other side of the spectrum, 84.5 percent of respondents who identify with the Saskatchewan Party would also vote for the party if an election were held today. Similar to the NDP, the Saskatchewan Party is also drawing votes from those who identify with minor parties. 9.1 percent of respondents who identify with the Progressive Conservative Party and 12.5 percent of respondents who identify with the Buffalo Party indicated that they would vote for the Saskatchewan Party if an election were held today. Lastly, 17.4 percent of respondents who indicated that they do not identify with any of the six parties would vote for the Saskatchewan Party in an election today.
Table 2. Provincial Party Identity and Vote Intention (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (N=800). Figures correspond to the respondents’ answers to the questions: “If the Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?” and “In Saskatchewan provincial politics, do you usually identify with one of the following parties?” Columns may not total to 100 due to rounding, the omission of support for other parties, or indications of an unwillingness to vote.
Household Income, Party Identification and Vote Choice
Saskatchewanians tend to identify with different political parties based on their household income (Figure 2). The majority (63.7 percent) of those who identify with the NDP reported an annual household income of $79,999 or less, while two-thirds (67.1 percent) of the respondents who identify with the Saskatchewan Party reported an annual household income between $40,000 and $119,999.
Figure 2. Provincial Party Identification and Household Income (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (N=800). Weighted data. Figures correspond to the respondents’ answers to the questions: “In Saskatchewan provincial politics, do you usually identify with one of the following parties?” and “How much total combined money did all members of your household earn in 2019 before tax?”
Figure 3 illustrates vote intention by respondent household income. Respondents with household incomes under $39,999 are most likely to vote for one of the minor parties (33.5 percent, collectively), followed by the NDP (31.1 percent). The Saskatchewan Party would earn the fewest votes from respondents with a household income of less than $39,999 (16 percent). Respondents with household incomes between $40,000 and $79,999 are most likely to vote for the Saskatchewan Party (38.9 percent), as are respondents with household incomes between $80,000 and $119,999 (29.5 percent). Those with household incomes above $120,000 report similar levels of support for the Saskatchewan Party (14.3 percent), the NDP (13.4 percent) and the minor parties (14.5 percent, collectively).
Figure 3. Provincial Party Vote Intention by Household Income (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (Less than 39,999, N=224; 40,000-79,999, N=271; 80,000-119,999, N=193; more than 120,000, N=112). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the question: “If a Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?” Figure excludes respondents who are ineligible to vote and respondents who would not vote.
The Demographics of Vote Intention
Gender does not play a major role in vote intention between supporters of the two major parties (Figure 4).[1] Over four in ten men (43.2 percent) intend to vote for the Saskatchewan Party, 35.5 percent of men intend to vote for the NDP, and 21.2 percent of men intend to vote for another party. Women intend to vote for the two major parties at a slightly lower rate than men. Just under one in four (38.3 percent) women intend to vote for the Saskatchewan party and 33.0 percent intend to vote for the NDP. Women respondents are more likely than men to vote for a minor party.
[1] In 2021, a total of twelve (12) respondents selected a gender other than man or woman. With low numbers of participants, it is difficult to draw conclusions about the broader population.
Figure 4. Provincial Party Vote Intention by Respondent Gender (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (Men, N=337; Women, N=353). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the question: “If a Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?” Figure excludes respondents who are ineligible to vote and respondents who would not vote.
Our survey asked respondents to self-identify as living in an urban, suburban, or rural area. Urban Saskatchewanians are slightly more likely to vote for the NDP, while suburbanites are slightly more likely to vote for the Saskatchewan Party (Figure 5). The close percentages between the two major parties in urban and suburban Saskatchewan do not persist in rural Saskatchewan, where the Saskatchewan Party dominates. Over half (50.6 percent) of rural Saskatchewanians intend to vote for the Saskatchewan Party while fewer than one in four (24.4 percent) rural residents intend to vote for the NDP.
Figure 5. Provincial Party Vote Intention by Place of Residence (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (Urban, N=409; Suburban, N=186; Rural, N=205). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the question: “If a Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?” Figure excludes respondents who are ineligible to vote and respondents who would not vote.
Figure 6 explores vote choice based on region (as defined by respondents’ postal codes). Support for the Saskatchewan Party is highest in central Saskatchewan, where a full 50 percent of residents intend to vote for the party, and lowest in Regina, where just over one in three residents intend to vote for the party. Support for the NDP is slightly higher than the Saskatchewan Party in both Saskatoon (41.7 percent) and Regina (36.4 percent), yet lower than the Saskatchewan Party in the north (22.8 percent), central (31.2 percent), and south (28.7 percent) regions.
Figure 6. Provincial Party Vote Intention by Region (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (North, N=75; Central, N=124; Saskatoon, N=194; Regina, N=184; South, N=88). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the question: “If a Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?” Data excludes those who would not vote.
Leaders’ Approval
The Viewpoint Saskatchewan survey asked Saskatchewanians about their attitudes toward various provincial and federal party leaders (Figure 7). Scored from 0 (really dislike) to 10 (really like), Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s rating is the lowest of the three party leaders at 3.58. In contrast, Saskatchewan Party Premier Scott Moe is ranked at 5.45, nearly two points higher than the prime minister. Attitudes toward the New Democratic Party leaders, Ryan Meili (provincial) and Jagmeet Singh (federal) sit between Trudeau and Moe at 4.68 each. Conservative Erin O’Toole trails slightly behind the New Democrats at 4.66.
Figure 7. Party Leader Feeling Thermometers, out of 10 (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (Scott Moe, N = 752; Ryan Meili, N = 659; Erin O’Toole, N = 625; Jagmeet Singh, N = 710; Justin Trudeau, N = 771). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the question: “What do you think about the party leaders in provincial and federal politics? On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means that you really dislike the leader and 10 means that you really like the leader, how much do you like…?”
Table 4 groups perceptions of party leaders as negative, neutral, or positive. Overall, Trudeau is disliked by more Saskatchewanians than he is liked; nearly six-in-ten Saskatchewanians have a negative impression of the prime minister. Conservative leader O’Toole, federal NDP leader Singh, and provincial NDP leader Meili are also disliked more than they are liked. Premier Moe is the only leader who is liked more than disliked: nearly half (48.6 percent) of Saskatchewan people have a positive impression of Moe.
Table 4. Perceptions of Party Leaders (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (N=800). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the question: “What do you think about the party leaders in provincial and federal politics? On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means that you really dislike the leader and 10 means that you really like the leader, how much do you like…?” Responses from 1 to 4 were coded “negative”, 5 were “neutral”, and 6 to 10 were “positive”.
Interestingly, a significant proportion of Saskatchewan people reported that they “don’t know this leader” in reference to O’Toole (21.9 percent) and Meili (17.6 percent). These are striking numbers, given that Saskatchewan is a federal Conservative stronghold and Meili contested the 2020 provincial election as NDP leader.
Issue Priorities
When asked to indicate their most important issue in Saskatchewan provincial politics, respondents reported healthcare (N=254) and the economy (N=209) as the top two issues (Figure 8). These responses are likely influenced by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Civil rights and education tied for the third most important issue (N=40), and crime & law came in fifth (N=30). The gap in importance is most significant between healthcare and the economy and the remaining issues, with more than half of respondents indicating that either healthcare or the economy was their most important issue (N=463).
Figure 8. Most Important Issues in Saskatchewan (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (N=800). Weighted data. Figure corresponds to respondents’ answers to the question: “What is the SINGLE most important issue to you personally in Saskatchewan PROVINCIAL politics?”
Figure 9 examines the most important issues in Saskatchewan by vote intention. The Saskatchewan Party is overwhelmingly preferred by respondents who identified the economy (79.7 percent) as their top issue while the NDP is overwhelmingly preferred by respondents who prioritized civil rights (78.8 percent). The NDP was also preferred by those who listed as their most important issue education (63.8 percent), healthcare (62.0 percent), and another topic outside the top five issues (60.1 percent). Respondents who selected crime & law as their most important issue were split nearly evenly between the NDP and Saskatchewan Party, at 53.0 percent and 47.0 percent respectively.
Figure 9. Provincial Party Vote Intention by Most Important Issue (March 2021)
Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey 2021 (N=528). Weighted data. Figures correspond to respondents’ answers to the questions: “If a Saskatchewan provincial election was held today, which party would you vote for?” and “What is the SINGLE most important issue to you personally in Saskatchewan PROVINCIAL politics?” Percentages have been rounded to one decimal place.
Concluding Thoughts
At present, the Saskatchewan Party enjoys a stronger electoral position than the NDP. For both the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP, strong majorities report they would vote in the same way as they did in 2020, but the Saskatchewan Party is starting from a larger voting base. Both the NDP and Saskatchewan Party appear to be siphoning support from minority parties in the province, with the progressive and centrist vote consolidating around the NDP and the conservative vote going to the Saskatchewan Party. The Saskatchewan Party also has a rural advantage. Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe is currently the more favoured party leader.
With Saskatchewan’s next scheduled election not taking place until late 2024, a lot can change between now and the next election. The Viewpoint survey indicates, however, that the Saskatchewan Party would fare well if an election were held today.
Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey
The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021. The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.