Viewpoint Alberta: Major Shifts in Vote Intentions 

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca 

Feodor Snagovsky | University of Alberta | feodor.snagovsky@ualberta.ca  

March 18, 2021

Support for Alberta’s governing United Conservative Party has continued to decline in the first quarter of 2021. Predictably, some UCP supporters have shifted their allegiance to the Wildrose Independence Party. Yet, for the first time since the party’s founding, UCP support has swung significantly or directly to the NDP. Given the polarized nature of Alberta politics and the historic gulf between the two parties, this UCP-to-NDP shift is both noteworthy and deserving of explanation. 

Vote Intentions 

For the first time in our Viewpoint Alberta surveys, UCP support sits below that of the NDP (Figure 1). The Liberals (6 percent), Alberta Party (5 percent), and Wildrose Independence Party (4 percent) each hold similar levels of support, well below the two leading parties. 

Our latest Viewpoint Alberta survey was in the field in the first week of March 2021, at the same time as two commercial polls (Angus Reid and Leger, Table 1). All three surveys employed a common online methodology and each pegged the NDP at around 40 percent support – a level of popularity not seen since the 2015 provincial election. UCP support varied substantially among the three surveys, however, with ours placed in the middle of the other two. This is attributable, in part, to different question wording. While other surveys allowed room for undecideds, for instance, ours forced leaners into party categories and left only an option for “I would not vote.”  

Trends in Voter Intention 

Our question wording and approach has remained consistent over time, which allows us to track vote intention from November 2019 (following the most recent federal election) to August 2020 (the end of the first wave of the pandemic) to March 2021 (the end of the second wave). Here, we see clear evidence of the UCP’s decline and the NDP’s ascendancy. Interestingly, these two processes have happened in stages. 

UCP support fell precipitously in the first year of its government, slowing during the first wave of the pandemic (Figure 2). The UCP’s early losses tended to correspond with gains by smaller parties, particularly the Wildrose Independence Party (WIP). 

NDP support climbed to historic levels very quickly during the second wave of the pandemic. This sudden shift suggests that the changes in public health restrictions and #AlohaGate scandal may have had a significant and lasting impact on support levels in the province. We asked respondents: “When Jason Kenney responded to his colleagues’ Christmas travel, how did it affect your trust in his ability to handle the COVID-19 pandemic?” A full 72 percent of NDP voters and 55 percent of Wildrose voters indicated it made them “less confident,” compared with 47 percent of respondents with intentions to vote UCP. Only 4 percent of NDP voters and 3 percent of Wildrose voters indicated Kenney’s handling of the scandal made them more confident (compared to 15 percent of UCP voters). This suggests the UCP MLA’s vacation plans were a focusing event, if not turning point, in terms of the party’s fortunes. 

Since August 2020, however, support for the Wildrose Independence Party (4 percent) has remained virtually unchanged. The Liberals have lost 4 percentage points (to 6 percent) and the Alberta Party 1 point (to 5 percent). The NDP has benefitted most from these minor party losses and the UCP’s continued decline. The percentage of Albertans indicating they would vote for the New Democrats has increased 12 points in 8 months. 

Trends in Voter Retention 

We can trace the migration of partisan support by comparing the proportion of voters each party has retained since the May 2019 provincial election. We asked our March 2021 respondents to recall which party they voted for in that campaign. Table 2 illustrates the proportions of people who would still vote for that party today. 

The New Democrats would retain 92 percent of their 2019 voters if an election were held today. This is 9 points up from 83 percent in August 2020. Conversely, over a third of 2019 UCP voters would choose another party in 2021. Most of these defections would benefit the NDP (8 percent), Wildrose Independence Party (7 percent), and Alberta Party (6 percent). The Liberal Party and Alberta Party would each lose up to 40 percent of their 2019 voting base, with most fleeing to the NDP. The Wildrose Independence Party did not exist during the 2019 provincial election. The supporters of one of its component parties, the Freedom Conservatives (FCP), would divide their votes among the NDP, UCP, and WIP. 

Party Identification and Voter Intention 

We can also gauge the electoral shake-up by examining how partisans of various stripes would cast their ballots if an election were held today. We asked respondents “In Alberta provincial politics, do you usually identify with one of the following parties?” Those that responded positively were considered as identifying with that particular party. Not all party identifiers cast ballots for “their” party. They may choose to vote for another party based on a host of considerations, including an aversion to their own party’s leader, a desire to keep an even less-favoured party from winning an election, or other factors. 

Some parties are better at converting their partisans’ support into vote intentions. Since the 2019 provincial election, over 9 in 10 Albertans who identify as New Democrats have reported an intention to vote for the party in the next election (e.g., see Figure 3). This is the strongest level of conversion of any party in the province. All other parties are bleeding votes to a much greater extent. 

In November 2019, 15 percent of provincial Liberal identifiers indicated they would vote for the NDP in the next Alberta election. That share grew to 20 percent in August 2020 and has reached 30 percent in March 2021 (Figure 3). We see a similar trend among Alberta Party identifiers, 3 percent of whom would have cast a ballot for the NDP in 2019 and 27 percent of whom would do so two years later. This suggests that progressives and centrists are sorting themselves into the NDP camp. The New Democrats have taken the lead among people who consider themselves as being in the “centre” of the left-right spectrum, for instance. One-third of centrists now intend to vote NDP (34 percent), up 9 points since August 2020. Conversely, the UCP’s share of centrist support has remained stagnant (at 25 percent). 

The UCP continues to lose identifiers to the Wildrose Independence Party. In November 2019, a full 90 percent of United Conservatives intended to vote UCP in the next provincial election. This dropped to 83 percent in August 2020 and 71 percent in March 2021 (Figure 3). Many of these United Conservatives are shifting to the WIP. While fewer than 3 percent of United Conservative identifiers would have cast a ballot for the Wildrose Independence Party in 2020, that share has ballooned to 18 percent in 2021. Intention to vote for the NDP among UCP identifiers has grown from 5 to 7 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, Wildrose identifiers are becoming more likely to vote for their party. One-in-five Wildrosers would vote for the UCP if an election were held today, a proportion that has been relatively constant since August 2020. Yet, 74 percent of WIP identifiers would now cast a ballot for the party – up 18 percentage points over those 8 months. This means that, as of March 2021, United Conservatives are about as likely to vote for Wildrose candidates as vice versa. 

The Demographics of Vote Intention 

These shifts in voter intention took place among different socio-demographic groups at different times. Illustrated in Figure 4, women were the first to leave the UCP in large numbers.[1] The party went from enjoying 42 percent of women’s vote intentions in November 2019 to 30 percent in August 2020. Women’s support for the UCP remains at that level in March 2021. Men’s support for the UCP also dropped during the first wave of the pandemic, but only about half as much as women’s. The UCP lost another 5 percentage points among men between August 2020 and March 2021, settling at 30 percent. The NDP did not benefit from these gender shifts until wave 2 of the pandemic, however, when its levels of support among women (+15 points) and men (+10 points) rose dramatically. 

[1] In 2021, a total of fourteen (14) respondents self-identified a gender other than man or woman. Six (6) people did so in 2020 and fifteen (15) in 2019. These low numbers make it difficult to draw conclusions about the broader populations.  

Geographic and regional trends also help explain the UCP’s decline. The party lost the greatest share of its rural support during the first wave of the pandemic, falling from 53 percent to 38 percent support (Figure 5). It has lost an additional 2 points since that time. Suburban support for the UCP has followed a similar path, dropping from 46 to 36 percent between November 2019 and August 2020, then to 32 percent in March 2021. The UCP’s support among urban voters held steady through the first wave of the pandemic (36 percent) before falling 10 points (to 26 percent) in the second wave. 

The New Democrats didn’t make a breakthrough in any of these communities until 2021. Following small declines in rural and urban support during the first wave of the pandemic, the NDP picked up 17 points among both rural and urban voters by March 2021. The NDP’s popularity among suburban voters increased more steadily over time, reaching 36 percent according to our latest survey. 

Figure 6 illustrates the levels of support each of the two main parties enjoys in various regions of the province (as defined by Health Zone boundaries). The UCP is most popular in Central Alberta, where 42 percent of residents intend to vote for the party, and least popular in the capital city of Edmonton (24 percent). The opposite is true of the NDP, whose support is strongest in Edmonton (45 percent) and weakest in central Alberta (27 percent). 

Figure 7 depicts changes in party support between August 2020 and 2021. The UCP has lost support in all regions except the South, where the conservative vote seems to be pulling back toward the party and away from the Wildrose Independence Party (WIP). The UCP’s biggest losses came in the North, where it is down 23 points. Our findings suggest the NDP is consolidating the progressive vote throughout most of the province. Vote intentions for the party have grown in Calgary (+11 percentage points), the North (+31), and the South (+17). 

Leaders’ Approval 

Our Viewpoint Alberta team was in the field in the aftermath of the federal election (November 2019), at the end of the first wave of the pandemic (August 2020), and again at the end of the second wave (March 2021). Approval ratings of various political leaders have varied considerably over this period (Figure 8). All three leaders enjoyed a sizeable bump in popularity over the first half of 2020, only to experience a noticeable drop in 2021. Scored from 0 (really dislike) to 10 (really like), Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s rating soared from 3.1 to 5.7, only to fall back to 3.7. UCP Premier Jason Kenney’s approval rose before falling well below pre-pandemic levels (3.2). While the premier’s popularity was not responsible for the UCP’s fading fortunes during wave 1 of the pandemic, Kenney’s falling numbers in wave 2 appear to be driving the party’s continued decline. Alberta NDP Leader and former Premier Rachel Notley’s scores remained most steady over this period, and she remains the only leader with a positive mean score on this feeling thermometer (5.1). 

Overall, the premier and prime minister are each disliked by more Albertans than they are liked. Six-in-ten Albertans have a negative impression of Kenney, and 55 percent have a negative impression of Justin Trudeau (Table 3). Federal Conservative leader Erin O’Toole finds himself in a similar position, with 38 percent of Albertans disliking him and only 27 percent liking him. One-in-five Albertans report not knowing O’Toole. Conversely, more Albertans like than dislike the provincial and federal NDP leaders, with 48 percent reporting a positive rating of Notley and 40 percent reporting a positive rating of Jagmeet Singh. 

Issue Priorities 

In an earlier Research Brief, we suggested that the decline in UCP support from November 2019 to August 2020 was due largely to a shift in issue priorities among Alberta voters. Since the 2019 provincial election, the economy has remained the “single most important issue” to Albertans. Yet, a greater focus on health care, which voters trust the NDP to handle, had shifted some attention away from the UCP’s strong suit, the economy. Since that time, the issue landscape has remained very similar, with the economy remaining the top issue in voters’ minds and health care some distance behind (Figure 9). 

Of all parties, the UCP is the preference of more people who cite the economy and energy as the most important issues (Figure 10). Because the economy remains the top issue in the minds of voters, and given the split among progressive voters in terms of their preferred issues, the UCP appears to maintain an edge on the issue landscape. Of people who prioritize healthcare, civil rights, and education, the NDP remains the party of choice. 

These findings align well with concepts of issue ownership. When asked which party was closest to them on their preferred issue, 38 percent of people responded with the NDP (+8 since August 2020) and 30 percent, the UCP (-2). The UCP is considered closest to those Albertans who prioritize the economy (49 percent), although this is down from 60 percent in August 2020 (-11 points). Meanwhile, those who prioritize healthcare (59 percent, +11 points since August 2020), civil rights (49 percent, +14), and education (51 percent, +4) view the NDP as being closest to them on those issues. NDP gains on these issues reflect a substantial drift away from the Liberal Party (see above). The NDP is also making some gains in traditional areas of UCP strength. Among Albertans who prioritize the economy, 26 percent now say the NDP is closest to them on that issue; that is up 9 points since August 2020, but still 12 points behind the UCP. 

Concluding Thoughts 

With Alberta’s next scheduled election taking place in early-2023, these findings are far from definitive when it comes to predicting who will form the next provincial government. The UCP’s losses among women and suburbanites in wave 1 of the pandemic were followed by the exodus of men and people from urban and rural areas in wave 2. The slowing decline of the UCP may well signal the party has reached its floor level of support, however. The inability of the Wildrose Independence Party to pick up support in urban areas like Calgary, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat suggests that might be the case, although the WIP leadership race could inject new life into the party. The same goes on the other side of the spectrum, with both the Alberta Party and Liberal Party holding leadership races amid falling fortunes. If they fail to stem the tide, the sudden rise of the NDP could mark the beginning of longer-term trends in the consolidation of the progressive vote and the New Democrats’ take-over of the political centre. If the NDP is able to maintain this momentum, and the UCP is unable to reverse its decline, the 2023 provincial election campaign could look more like 2015 than 2019. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021. The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley.  It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.