The Politics of COVID-19 in Alberta 

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca 

Elaine Hyshka | University of Alberta 

Feodor Snagovsky | University of Alberta 

Nick Carlson | University of Alberta | nrcarlso@ualberta.ca 

Pamela Downe | University of Saskatchewan 

Haizhen Mou | Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy 

October 28, 2020

Introduction 

The following report breaks down the results from an August 2020 Viewpoint Alberta Study surrounding Albertans’ perceptions of the handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in local, provincial, federal and global contexts. The Viewpoint Alberta 2020 survey asked for the perspectives of over 800 respondents on their views of trust, ethics, and ways of moving forward when it comes to dealing with the virus. We generally see higher levels of trust and support attributed to local and provincial institutions. Albertans’ views on the pandemic response are noticeably informed by their partisanship and ideological leanings, suggesting that political polarization is affecting consensus over public health measures. 

Trust in Handling COVID 

When it comes to handling the pandemic, Albertans tend to lack trust in their elected officials. This said, they have more trust in local officials compared to those in provincial and federal offices. This is particularly evident when looking at executive offices (Figure 1). While half have little to no trust in their local mayor or reeve, nearly four-in-ten Albertans have a lot or full trust in them (39 percent). There was no significant variation in terms of place of residence, with urban, suburban, and rural Albertans reporting similar levels of trust in their local officials. By comparison, a vast majority of Albertans place little or no trust in the prime minister (61 percent) or premier (63 percent). Perceptions of Prime Minister Trudeau were influenced by peoples’ partisanship and place of residence, with over half of UCP supporters (54 percent) and rural-dwellers (56 percent) reporting having no trust in him whatsoever. Trust levels in Premier Kenney were lowest among New Democrats (58 percent reporting no trust). 

Non-elected officials enjoyed far higher levels of support among Albertans. Chief Medical Officer of Health Deena Hinshaw is by far the most trusted public official in terms of handling the pandemic. Two-thirds of Albertans (65 percent) have a lot or full trust in Alberta’s top doctor (Figure 2). This is ten percentage points higher than Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Theresa Tam (54 percent), whose level of support remains higher than the premier and prime minister. 

Dr. Hinshaw’s level of trust varied among Albertans in different sized communities. Two-thirds of people in cities and the suburbs reported having a lot (38 percent) or full (30 percent) trust in Hinshaw. This level of trust was halved among rural Albertans, with 44 percent stating they had little (28) to no (16) trust in Dr. Hinshaw. Partisanship was also a factor, although to a smaller degree (Figure 3). 75 percent of New Democrats placed a lot or full trust in the top doctor, while 30 percent of UCPers had little to no trust in her. This said, given the effect of partisanship on many other areas of public opinion related to the pandemic in Alberta, views of Dr. Hinshaw remain among the least polarized. 

Perceptions of Performance

Regardless of their rather low level of trust, overall, most Albertans felt their various governments were performing well in handling the pandemic (Figure 4). Local governments received the highest grades (only 29 percent felt they were doing a bad or very bad job), while all levels of government received at least a “good” rating from 6 in 10 Albertans. 

These performance ratings were especially favorable compared to Albertans’ opinions of foreign countries’ handling of the pandemic (see Figure 5). According to Albertans, both the United States and China performed poorly in this regard. Nearly two-thirds of our respondents felt that the US did a “very bad” job in its response to COVID-19, and just as many felt China did a “bad” or “very bad” job. Similarly, Alberta Health Services rates higher in Albertans’ minds compared to the World Health Organization (WHO) (Figure 6). 

Who Would Have Performed Better?

Presenting them with a series of past and present leaders, we also asked respondents to identify who would have handled the pandemic better. Depicted in Figure 7A, 37 percent of Albertans felt that former Premier Notley would have outperformed Premier Kenney, who was favoured by 30 percent of respondents. Conversely, Albertans have significant preference for Stephen Harper over Justin Trudeau (Figure 7B). Nearly half of the respondents (48 percent) felt Harper would be doing a better job of handling the pandemic, compared to just 28 percent for Trudeau. For context, 74 percent of Albertans felt President Obama would be handling the pandemic better than President Trump. Combined, these findings align with other public opinion research indicating waning support for Premier Kenney and continued dissatisfaction with the federal government and Justin Trudeau. 

Confidence in Levels of Government

Figure 8 presents Albertans’ belief in different levels of government in handling new cases of COVID-19. As with levels of trust and perceived performance, local governments scored higher than their provincial and federal counterparts. Almost half (49 percent) of respondents were confident in the ability of their local government to deal with new cases of COVID-19. 45 and 41 percent of Albertans felt the same level of confidence in their provincial and federal governments, respectively. Almost one-in-four Albertans reported having zero confidence in the federal government, reflecting an anti-Ottawa sentiment seen throughout the survey. 

When it comes to handling future cases, Albertans were far more confident in Alberta Health Services and hospitals than they were in schools and universities (Figure 9). The timing of our survey is important, in this regard, as we were in the field less than one month before the start of the school year. At that time, nearly two-thirds of Albertans were “not that confident” (43 percent) or “not at all confident” (21 percent) in the ability of schools to handle increased cases. Of note, there were no significant differences of opinion according to age, gender, community size, or other demographic variables. 

Views on Reopening

Overall, Albertans appeared risk-averse when it came to the speed of re-opening. Only 10 percent of respondents believed that the reopening of facilities has been too slow, with the remainder believing it has been just right (65 percent) or too quick (35 percent) (Figure 10). It is interesting to contrast these figures with the fact that 13 percent of respondents believed that restrictions should be fully lifted right now, and a further 14 percent agreeing that they should be lifted as soon as cases start to decline (Figure 11). A vast majority of Albertans appeared more patient, however, with 39 percent wanting to wait to lift restrictions until there have been no new cases for at least 28 days and 34 percent wanting to wait for a COVID-19 vaccine or treatment. 

There were significant partisan divisions in terms of views on re-opening (Figure 12). UCP supporters and members of other political parties are over 4 times more willing to re-open fully right now compared to NDP supporters. Over 90 percent of NDP supporters believe in much more restrained re-opening schedules, stating they would wish to re-open once there have been no new cases within 28 days (45 percent) or not until there is COVID-19 vaccine or treatment (44 percent). By comparison, only 66 percent of UCP supporters believe in these lengthier time frame. 

This partisan pattern extends to Albertans’ views of how the re-open has been going thus far. Significantly more UCP respondents believing the re-open has been too slow (12 percent) compared to NDP supporters (3 percent). Conversely, half of all NDP supporters believe re-open has been too quick, compared to just 27 percent of UCP supporters. 

Partisanship could also affect Albertans’ willingness to take an approved vaccine, as well. Overall, 83 percent of respondents stated they are either certain or likely to take the vaccine. Support among UCP supporters is significantly lower, however, with around 65 percent saying they would be certain (42 percent) or likely (23 percent) to do so (Figure 13). On the other end of the spectrum, significantly smaller proportions of NDP supporters seem to be unaccepting of the vaccine compared to other partisans. UCP scores highest in lack of support for the vaccine, with over 20 percent of respondents saying they are unlikely or certain not to take the vaccine. 

When it comes to the belief of whether vaccinations should be mandatory or voluntary, we see similar partisan divisions (Figure 14). A majority of NDP supporters are willing to make the vaccine mandatory for, while most UCP supporters prefer to make it voluntary. 

Summary

Albertans’ attitudes towards the handling of COVID in Canada are shaped by partisanship and feelings of western alienation. While barely half of Albertans have high levels of trust or confidence in their provincial and federal officials, faith remains higher in local and non-elected officials, including Dr. Deena Hinshaw. Assessments of the performance of various governments is also high. Overall, Albertans view pandemic politics much the same way they view other issues: through the lens of partisanship and western alienation. There were stark differences between UCP and NDP supporters, particularly in terms of plans for re-opening and a potential vaccine. And strong anti-Ottawa sentiments shape the way Albertans’ view the role and performance of the federal government. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between August 17 and 30, 2020. The survey was deployed online by the Social Sciences Research Laboratories (SSRL). A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/35rtU9F. SSRL co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 825 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl, Elaine Hyshka, and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.