The Politics of COVID-19 in Alberta & Saskatchewan 

Pamela Downe | University of Saskatchewan

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta 

April 6, 2021

Are Albertans viewing the pandemic differently than the residents of Saskatchewan? Based on parallel public opinion surveys in early-March 2021, this Research Brief examines the extent to which these prairie neighbours vary in their attitudes about COVID-19 and their governments’ responses to it. Drawing on survey data from the end of the first wave of the pandemic (August 2020), as well, this Research Brief tracks Albertans’ attitudes through the end of the second wave (March 2021).  

Trust in Key Officials 

When it comes to handling the pandemic, residents of both Alberta and Saskatchewan tend to trust public health officials more than elected leaders. Chief Medical Officer of Health (CMOH) Dr. Deena Hinshaw maintains a lot or full trust among 60 percent of Albertans, for example, while Saskatchewan’s CMOH Dr. Saqib Shahab enjoys a lot or full trust from 62 percent of people in that province. Just under half of Albertans and Saskatchewanians place the same level of trust in Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam (49 percent). 

Levels of trust are considerably lower among politicians. Over two-thirds of residents in both provinces have little to no trust in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when it comes to handling the pandemic. A majority of Saskatchewanians (54 percent) feel the same way about Premier Scott Moe. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney ranks lowest on this measure, with 77 percent of Albertans reporting they have little or no trust at all in his handling of the pandemic. 

All Alberta officials have lost ground since our last Viewpoint Alberta survey in August 2020. Over the course of the second wave of the pandemic, Premier Kenney has lost 10 percentage points in terms of Albertans who had a lot or full trust in his handling of COVID-19. Dr. Hinshaw (-6 points), Dr. Tam (-5 points), and Prime Minister Trudeau (-4 points) also lost ground over this period. 

Government Performance 

Beyond trust in officials, we gauged prairie residents’ assessments of how various governments and agencies have been handling the pandemic (Figure 2). Three-in-four felt that their respective provincial health agencies were doing a good or very good job. The Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) (76 percent) and Alberta Health Services (75 percent) ranked just above local governments in terms of their approval ratings. 

Residents of both provinces were divided when it came to the federal government’s performance, with approximately half providing Ottawa with a failing grade. Millennials were most likely to approve of the federal government’s handling of the pandemic, with 57 percent in Alberta and 62 percent in Saskatchewan reporting that Ottawa was doing a good or very good job. 

60 percent of Saskatchewanians – including 68 percent of Baby Boomers – felt their provincial government was doing a good or very good job handling the pandemic. This was nearly double the rating Albertans gave their provincial government (33 percent). 

The Government of Alberta’s net unfavourabilities were the highest in our study (minus 28). This is a mirror image of the government’s performance in our August 2020 survey. At the end of the first wave, 64 percent of Albertans thought their provincial government was doing a good or very good job at handling the pandemic, and only 36 percent felt it was doing a bad or very bad job.  

Views on COVID-19 Restrictions 

COVID-19 restrictions in Alberta and Saskatchewan have changed over time but have included social distancing, the use of face masks in public spaces, and limitations on the number of people permitted at social gatherings. Just over one-third of the residents in both provinces assessed these restrictions to be too lenient while 39 percent of Albertans and 43 percent of Saskatchewanians believed the restrictions were just about right. The largest difference overall was between the 26 percent of Albertans and the 19 percent of Saskatchewanians who thought that the COVID-19 rules were too harsh. 

Differences in the views on COVID-19 rules were noted within and between the two provinces when place of residence (community size and location) was considered (Figure 4). In Alberta, 42 percent of rural residents viewed pandemic restrictions as too harsh. In contrast, 27 percent of rural residents in Saskatchewan held the same view. A similar proportion of rural residents in both provinces assessed the COVID-19 rules to be about right. More Saskatchewan residents in all three community types (rural, suburban, and urban) assessed the restrictions to be too lenient in comparison with their Albertan counterparts. 

The largest differences in the views on COVID-19 restrictions aligned with ideological self-placement (Figure 5) and provincial partisanship (Figure 6). In both Alberta and Saskatchewan, the majority of those who described themselves ideologically as far-left viewed the pandemic rules to be too lenient. In contrast, more Albertans who described themselves as holding a far-right position believed the current public health restrictions to be too harsh. A similar pattern emerged along political party lines. The majority of respondents who supported the NDP believed the COVID-19 rules to be too lenient. More respondents across all other parties – except for the Wildrose Independence Party and the Alberta Party – believed the current restrictions were just about right. 

Vaccine Views 

Respondents were asked whether COVID-19 vaccines should be voluntary or mandatory (Figure 7). Albertans were divided in their responses, with 41 percent believing that vaccines should be mandatory for everyone and 17 percent believing they should be voluntary. Saskatchewanians were more evenly split; 36 percent believed that vaccines should be voluntary for everyone and 33 percent said they should be mandatory for all. 

Half of Albertans indicated a strong personal willingness to take the vaccine and an additional 22 percent indicated that they would be likely to do so. A slightly smaller proportion (46 percent) of Saskatchewanians were certain that they would take the vaccine, but 27 percent indicated a likelihood of acceptance. In both provinces, 10 percent of respondents were certain that they would not take the vaccine, while 10 percent of Albertans and 7 percent of Saskatchewanians were leaning away from it. There were few gender-based differences in the likelihood of getting the vaccine. The demographic groups most certain that they would take the vaccine were Baby Boomers and those in the high income category.  

There are differences in intended vaccine uptake between rural and urban communities in both provinces (Figure 9). Over 80 percent of urban residents in Alberta are certain or likely to get vaccinated as are 75 percent of urban Saskatchewan residents. This compares to 55 percent of rural Albertans and 68 percent or rural Saskatchewanians. There is a more pronounced urban/rural divide in Alberta among those who are unwilling to get the vaccine. Among urban Albertans, 14 percent expressed unwillingness while 31 percent of rural residents reported the same. In Saskatchewan, 18 percent of city dwellers and 21 percent or rural respondents indicated that they were certain or likely to refuse the vaccine. 

There are significant differences in the likelihood of vaccine uptake along ideological and partisan lines (Figures 10 and 11). In both Alberta and Saskatchewan, the majority of those who identify themselves ideologically as far-left or centre-left are certain to take the vaccine. In contrast, only 16 percent of Albertans and 31 percent of Saskatchewanians who describe themselves as far-right indicated the same intention. The majority of those who would vote for their respective New Democratic Parties if an election were held today are certain to take the vaccine. In contrast, only 22 percent of Alberta respondents who support the Wildrose Independence Party and 29 percent of Saskatchewan respondents who support the Buffalo Party indicated the same willingness. Among Albertans who intend to vote for the party holding power at the time of this survey – the United Conservative Party (UCP) – 64 percent are certain or likely to take the vaccine. Among Saskatchewanians who intend to vote for the party holding power at the time of this survey – the Saskatchewan Party (SP) – 72 percent are certain or likely to take the vaccine. 

Overall, the majority of respondents in both provinces felt that the pace of vaccine delivery was too slow (Figure 12). Only 7 percent of Albertans and 6 percent of Saskatchewanians believed that people are being vaccinated too quickly. Just over one-quarter of respondents felt that the vaccination pace was just right. 

There were few differences in views on the pace of vaccinations across rural, suburban, and urban communities (Figure 13). The largest difference is in Alberta, between the 70 percent of urban residents and 55 percent of rural residents who think that vaccine delivery is too slow. 

The differences in views on the pace of vaccination were noted across the continuum of political ideology and political party support (Figures 14 and 15). However, these differences were not as pronounced as in the views on COVID-19 restrictions or vaccine intentions. 

The majority of respondents who hold left-wing or centrist ideological views thought the pace of vaccination was too slow. Half of those who describe themselves as far-right believed the pace to be too slow even though, as noted earlier, only 16 percent of Albertans and 31 percent of Saskatchewanians in this category indicated that they would certainly take the vaccine. 

Across all political parties – with the exception of Saskatchewan’s far-right Buffalo Party – respondents believed the pace of vaccine rollout was too slow. Where does responsibility for the slow pace of vaccine rollout lie (Figure 16)? Among those who assessed the pace of vaccination to be too slow, 46 percent of Albertans and 52 percent of Saskatchewanians believed that the federal government was to blame. The provincial government was held responsible by 16 percent of Albertans and 8 percent of Saskatchewanians. Approximately one-third of Albertan and Saskatchewan respondents assigned responsibility to both federal and provincial governments equally, while 6 percent thought that neither was responsible. 

A significant majority of those in both Alberta and Saskatchewan who describe themselves ideologically as centre-right or far-right held the federal government responsible for the slow pace of vaccination. There was a greater balance in the attribution of blame by those who describe themselves as centre and centre-left. Those on the far-left in Saskatchewan held both provincial and federal governments responsible. More NDP supporters in Alberta, however, felt that responsibility for the slow pace of vaccination was shared between federal and provincial governments, as did Liberal party supporters in Saskatchewan. Respondents across all other political parties in Saskatchewan assigned responsibility to the federal government. In Alberta, supporters of the Liberals as well as the Alberta Party were equally split in assigning blame for the slow pace of vaccinations to the federal government or to both federal and provincial governments. 

Outlook 

There are interprovincial differences in the overall outlook on the pandemic’s trajectory. The majority of Saskatchewan respondents expressed greater certainty and optimism, with 53 percent believing that the worst of COVID-19 is behind us. Over half of Albertans were unsure whether the worst is in the past or future. 

Summary 

In general, residents of Alberta and Saskatchewan hold similar views on the COVID-19 pandemic. In both provinces, public health officers are trusted more that elected leaders, and provincial officials engender more confidence than those from Ottawa. Political ideology and partisanship consistently shape attitudes towards COVID-19 restrictions, personal vaccine uptake, vaccine rollouts, and the trajectory of the pandemic. Those who describe themselves as holding centre-right and far-right political views tend to find the COVID-19 restrictions to be too harsh and vaccine rollout too hasty; they are also less likely to take the vaccine. Overall, though, the majority of respondents across both provinces think the pace of vaccinations is too slow, and responsibility for this lies primarily with the federal government. In terms of broad outlook, there is more optimism in Saskatchewan where the worst of the pandemic is thought to be in the past. Alberta residents are more unsure. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021. The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley.  It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.