Separatism in Alberta
Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca
Clare Buckley | University of Alberta | cbuckley@ualberta.ca
April 22, 2020
Introduction
As the results of the 2019 federal election were announced, partisan divisions along regional lines were clear, showing Albertans’ antagonism to the party that had just been re-elected. With this came talks of separatism, or “wexit”, implying a western exit from Canada. However, do Albertans really support separation from Canada, and who are the people that support separation? The evidence from the Viewpoint Alberta Study (1) shows that most Albertans are not separatist, though demographic, partisan, and ideological identification may help explain who supports the Alberta separatist movement.
Should Alberta separate?
To determine the characteristics of those who want Alberta to separate from Canada, Viewpoint Alberta Survey respondents were asked a straight yes/ no question: “Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?”. Of the entire survey, over two-thirds (71%) of respondents were against Alberta separating, while almost one-third (29%) were in favour of separatism.
Figure 1: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?
Demographic groups
In the following graphs, those who responded “yes” have been labelled as separatist; those who responded “no” have been labelled as non-separatist.
Men are more likely to be separatist compared to women. A little over one-third (34%) of the men surveyed are in favour of separatism compared to one-quarter (25%) of women.
Figure 2: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country? (Male)
Figure 3: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country? (Female)
When examining the differences based on ethnicity, white respondents were more likely to be separatists than non-white respondents. Whereas almost one-third (32%) of white respondents were in favour of separatism, less than a quarter (23%) of non-white respondents were separatists.
Figure 4: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country? (White)
Figure 5: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country? (Non-white)
Those from rural areas are more likely to be in favour of separatism than those from urban and suburban areas. A little under half (44%) of respondents from a rural area are separatists, compared to 27% of respondents from suburban areas and 27% of respondents from urban areas.
Whether a respondent is in favour of separatism also varies with how long they have lived in Alberta. Those most likely to be separatist have lived in Alberta their whole life (32%), followed by those who have lived in Alberta for most of their life (28%) and some of their life (28%). Newcomers were the least likely to be separatist, with only 17% agreeing that Alberta should separate.
Figure 6: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?
Figure 7: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?
Respondents were categorized by the generation in which they were born: Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z (2).The generation with the most support for separatism is Gen X. One-third (33%) of those in Gen X support Alberta separating from Canada. Comparatively, a higher proportion of Baby Boomers are also separatist (32%). The youngest generation, Gen Z, has the lowest support for separatism at 21%.
Figure 8: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?
Those who have finished post-secondary are the least likely to be separatist. Only one-quarter (25%) of those who finished post-secondary are separatist, compared to 36% who have some post-secondary education, 32% who have a high school degree, and 36% who have less than a high school degree.
Figure 9: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?
There are not significant differences between support for separatism and household income levels. Those with incomes over 126K had the highest support for separatism at 33%, whereas those with incomes up to 25K and from 76 to 125K had the lowest at 27% each. 30% of respondents with household incomes between 26 to 75K supported separatism.
Partisan and ideological identification
Amongst respondents who identified with the United Conservatives, almost half (46%) are separatists. New Democrats and Liberals are less inclined to be separatists, with only 10% of New Democrats and 11% of Liberals believing that Alberta should separate from Canada. Of those who voted for other parties, 37% are separatist. One-fifth (20%) of those who selected none of the above are separatist.
Respondents were asked to place themselves on a left-right spectrum. As shown below, there is a linear relationship between support for separatism and moving right along the political spectrum. Whereas 11% of those on the far left and 16% of those on the centre-left side support separatism, 36% of those on the centre-right support separatism. This jumps to 68% for those identifying as far right.
Figure 10: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?
Figure 11: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?
Is Alberta separatism a real possibility?
Views on whether separatism is a real possibility vary by whether a respondent is a separatist or not. Separatists are more likely to think that it is a possibility, whereas there are almost zero non-separatists that view separatism as a possibility. Over one-quarter (27%) of separatists think Alberta separatism either will happen or is very likely to happen, compared to 1% of non-separatists. The largest cohort within separatists believe separatism could happen at 39%; however, the largest cohort within non-separatists believe that Alberta separatism is very unlikely to happen, at 44%.
Figure 12: To what extent do you consider Alberta separatism a real possibility? (Separatists)
Figure 13: To what extent do you consider Alberta separatism a real possibility? (Non-separatists)
Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey
The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between October 22 and November 21, 2019. The survey was deployed online by Qualtrics. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/2PvQV2C. Qualtrics co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 820 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Jared Wesley and Loleen Berdahl. It was funded by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.
Endnotes
1. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was funded by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (University of Alberta) and the College of Arts and Science (University of Saskatchewan). The survey was completed for the research team, led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared J. Wesley. Neither the funding bodies nor the research team are responsible for the analyses or interpretations presented here.
2. Generational breakdown is as follows: Silent Generation: Born before 1944; Baby Boomer: Born 1944 to 1964 Gen X: Born 1965 to 1979; Millennials: Born 1980 to 1994; Gen Z: Born since 1995