Views of Political Leadership in Saskatchewan

Kirsten Samson| University of Saskatchewan

Katelynn Kowalchuk | University of Saskatchewan

Loleen Berdahl | University of Saskatchewan | loleen.berdahl@usask.ca

Jim Farney | University of Regina | jim.farney@uregina.ca

June 25, 2021

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the popularity of federal and provincial party leaders? Our latest Viewpoint Survey (March 1-8, 2021), conducted at the beginning of the pandemic’s third wave, explores Saskatchewanians’ attitudes towards the prime minister, premier, and other party leaders. Results reveal that Premier Scott Moe is the only leader to enjoy positive favourability ratings. In contrast, the majority of demographic groups perceive Prime Minister Justin Trudeau negatively. Impressions of Ryan Meili, Erin O’Toole, and Jagmeet Singh are relatively neutral, with some demographic groups perceiving these leaders more favourably than others.

Impressions of Leaders

We asked Saskatchewanians what single word came to mind when they thought of the major party leaders, Scott Moe (Saskatchewan Party), Ryan Meili (Saskatchewan New Democratic Party), Justin Trudeau (Liberal Party of Canada), and Erin O’Toole (Conservative Party of Canada). The word clouds in Figure 1 illustrate the most common terms used to describe them; the larger the word, the more frequently it was used by respondents.

Of the top ten terms used to describe Moe, seven are positive, two are negative, and one is neutral. Interestingly, “Saskatchewan” and “local” are two of the top ten words used to describe Moe, suggesting his image is closely linked to local, Saskatchewan identity.

Saskatchewan Opposition Leader Meili receives fewer positive words than Moe. Only four of the top ten words selected used to describe Meili are positive (such as good and honest) while neutral words such as “nothing” and “unsure” also appear in his top ten. Federal Opposition Leader O’Toole appears even less well known than Meili. A full five of the top ten words describing O’Toole indicate unfamiliarity (such as unknown, nothing, and unsure).

The top ten words describing Trudeau are more polarizing than the other leaders––no word in the top ten indicates uncertainty. Instead, seven of the top ten are negative (such as idiot, incompetent, and liar) while only three are positive. Perceptions of Racial Discrimination in Alberta

Source: Viewpoint Saskatchewan Survey, March 2021.  N=800.  Size of word represents frequency of use in response to the following question: “When you think about the following leaders, what single word comes to mind?” 

Favourability Ratings

We also probed respondents about whether they liked or disliked particular party leaders.  Figure 2 shows that nearly six in ten Saskatchewanians dislike Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (58 percent).  This is 21 percentage points higher than the party leader who is disliked the second most, the federal NDP’s Jagmeet Singh. The Saskatchewan NDP’s Ryan Meili is 35 percent disliked, Premier Scott Moe 32 percent, and Erin O’Toole 31 percent.  Positive feelings toward party leaders are less common. O’Toole and Singh have the most positive perceptions at 17 percent each. Despite his positive ratings, O’Toole faces the challenge of being relatively unknown. (O’Toole’s obscurity is also reflected in the word clouds presented in Figure 1.) Although Saskatchewan is perceived as a conservative province, a full 22 percent of respondents stated that they “don’t know this leader.” Likewise, the leader of the province’s official opposition, Meili, is unknown by 18 percent of respondents.

When looking at net favourability (Figure 3), Moe is the only leader with a net positivity rating (+17). On the other hand, Trudeau has an abysmal score of -28. Meili, O’Toole, and Singh each have neutral favourability ratings, ranging from -1 to -2.

To see how favourability varies based on demographic characteristics, we compared net favourability scores for party leaders among different genders, races, and geographic areas. As illustrated in Figures 4 and 5, Moe has a net positive rating in all demographics, with the highest positive rating in rural areas (+32). His favourability in urban (+11) and suburban (+12) areas is distinctly lower than in rural areas but is not insignificant (Figure 5). Moe’s net favourability is also divided between white (+20) and non-white[1] (+2) voters with a difference of 18 percent between the two categories, though they are both net positive (Figure 4). His favourability rating also varies by gender. He receives a higher net favourability from female respondents (+21) than male respondents (+16).

Meili has more mixed favourability among these demographics compared to Moe. Figure 4 shows that Meili’s highest net positive rating is among non-white respondents (+12). Meili’s lowest favourability rating is in rural areas (-12), and suburban areas also gave him a net negative rating of -4 (Figure 5). Meili also received a net negative rating among male respondents (-10). This is contrasted with a net positive rating from female respondents (+5).

O’Toole’s net favourability ratings among these respondent groups are fairly neutral, though this may be an indicator of his nonrecognition in Saskatchewan. His net favourability among male and female respondents are +2 and -4, respectively, and he has net favourability ratings of -1 among white respondents and -5 among non-white respondents (Figure 4). Among all demographic groups, rural residents give O’Toole his higher net positive rating (+11). 

Singh’s net favourability is highest among non-white respondents (+21), while white respondents indicated a net negative rating of -7 (Figure 4). Singh is favoured in urban (+5) and suburban (+9) areas while receiving his lowest net negative rating in rural areas (-23; Figure 5).

Trudeau has the lowest net negative approval among rural Saskatchewanians at -57, though his negative net approval rating extends to urban (-19) and suburban (-16) areas as well (Figure 5). His only net positive rating comes from non-white respondents (+12), while white respondents indicated a net negative rating of -37 (Figure 4). Among the political leaders, Trudeau has the lowest net negative rating and received the lowest favourability ratings in all categories, except among non-white respondents (+12). Notably, women (-33) give Trudeau a worse net negative favourability score than men (-24). Trudeau can be contrasted to Moe, who receives the highest favourability ratings among all demographic groups except non-white respondents (+2).

[1] While the term “non-white” is far from ideal (for starters, in that it may be interpreted as endorsing the notion that “white” is the “default” racial category) – we use it here to guard against improper generalizations about specific racial and ethnic communities. Alternative terms, such as BIPOC, carry a different set of identity markers, which may not capture how respondents meant to be identified.  In future research, we intend to explore new ways of measuring racial and ethnic identification that respect these important nuances.

Figure 6 examines favourability ratings for the party leaders by generational cohorts.[2] Trudeau receives a net negative favourability rating among all generations except Gen Z (+9). O’Toole’s favourability is similar to that in Figure 4––his net favourability is fairly neutral. The only exception to O’Toole’s neutral favourability is in the Silent Generation where he receives a net negative rating of -16. Singh’s net favourability differs from the other federal party leaders; it is clearly divided along generational lines. The Silent Generation, Boomers, and Generation X all rate Singh at the same net negative rate of -18. In contrast, the two younger generations, Millennials (23) and Generation Z (25), afford Singh notable net positive ratings.

Similar to Figure 5, Moe is more favourable than other party leaders and receives a net positive rating from all generational cohorts. His overall positive favourability wanes from elder to younger generations, suggesting a generational shift away from Moe. However, among Generation Z, this shift in favourability does not appear to be migrating towards Meili, who received a fairly neutral rating from Generation Z (-2).

Meili’s net favourability does not follow a generational pattern. The Silent Generation (+3) and Generation Z (-2) give Meili a fairly neutral net rating, while Boomers (-15) and Generation X     (-10) are decidedly negative. Meili receives his highest net positive rating from Millennials (+20).

[2] Generations are coded by birth year: Silent Generation (1928-1945); Baby Boomers (1946-1964); Generation X (1965-1980); Millennials (1981-1996); Generation Z (1997-2003).

Figure 7 explores the favourability of party leaders by income and union affiliation. Trudeau receives a net negative favourability rating in all categories. He is rated lower than -10 in all categories, with notable negativity ratings among those in the low-middle income bracket (-37) and high-income bracket (-36).

O’Toole’s favourability hovers near neutrality. He receives somewhat positive net favourability ratings from those in the middle-high income bracket, while he receives more negative ratings from low-income respondents (-14). O’Toole is more liked among union members (+7) than people who are not in unions (+1).

Singh also receives more mixed net favourability ratings, though with a higher net ratings, both positive and negative, than O’Toole. He receives positive net favourability among unionized respondents (+17) and low-income respondents (+9). Singh receives negative net favourability among those in the high-income bracket (-24). Those in the low-middle income bracket and middle-high income bracket rate him within +/-5 of neutrality.

Similar to previous figures, Moe has a net positive rating in all categories, with the highest positivity among middle-high income earners (+30), non-unionized respondents (+20), and low-middle income earners (+17). His net positive favourability is somewhat lower among high-income earners (+13), low-income earners (+6), and unionized respondents (+6).

Meili’s favourability is more mixed. He is rated fairly positive among unionized respondents (+16), middle-high income earners (+10), and low-income earners (+7). The only demographic group where Meili receives a higher net positivity rating than Moe is low-income earners, though the difference between each provincial leader’s rating is less than 5 percentage points. Meili is rated negatively by high (-14) and low-middle (-12) income respondents.

Figure 8 examines the net favourability of party leaders by education. Similar to previous figures, Moe has a net positive rating in all categories, with the highest positivity among respondents with trades (+24), some college (+18), and university educations (+18). His net positive favourability is somewhat lower among those with a high school education or less (+7). In contrast, Trudeau is perceived negatively among all education groups except those with a university education (+9). Impressions of Trudeau are most negative among respondents with a trades education (-50).

Meili’s favourability is most pronounced among Saskatchewanians with a university education (+21); in fact, this is the only education type that grants Meili a higher net positivity rating than Moe. Meili is perceived negatively by those with trades (-16) and high school educations (-7). The federal NDP’s Singh receives similar reactions. His greatest net negative impression is from those with a trades education (-17) and greatest net positive is among those with a university education (+17).

O’Toole has relatively stable, neutral ratings. O’Toole’s most pronounced rating is a net negative impression of -10 from those with a high school education or less.

All leaders received net negative favourability scores by respondents with a high school education or less, with the exception of Moe who received a net positive rating of +7. Conversely, those with a university education rated all leaders with a net positive, though O’Toole’s rating (+1) lies very close to neutrality.

The Viewpoint survey asked respondents to place themselves on the political spectrum. Favourability of party leaders according to self-placement on the political spectrum agrees with conventional thought. Those on the far- and centre-left have positive favourability ratings toward Meili and Singh and negative ratings for Moe and O’Toole, while those on the right- and centre-right favour Moe and O’Toole. Although the Liberal Party of Canada positions itself as a centrist party, Trudeau receives mixed ratings among the centre-left (+19), centre (-33), and centre-right (-49).

Interestingly, Saskatchewan Party leader Moe has higher favourability ratings from the centre- and far-right than Conservative Party leader O’Toole. Moe has favourability ratings of +46 among centre-right and +54 among far-right respondents. O’Toole’s favourability is markedly lower at ratings of +26 among centre-right and +15 among far-right respondents.

Figure 10 illustrates net favourability scores of the major party leaders by issue type. Among respondents who believe Saskatchewan should prioritize social issues, Singh (+14), Meili (+10), and Trudeau (+3) receive the highest net favourability ratings. Both O’Toole (-20) and Moe (-10) receive negative net favourability ratings among those who believe social issues should be focused on first and foremost.

Of respondents who think that economic issues should be prioritized, favourability ratings are more pronounced. Impressions of Moe (+38) and O’Toole (+13) are positive while the other party leaders all have negative impressions. Trudeau’s negative net favourability rating is -53.

Predictably, favourability scores aligned with vote intention in all parties and leaders––except O’Toole (Figure 11). We asked respondents who they would support if a provincial or federal election were held tomorrow and compared their vote choice to their impressions of the major party leaders.  Among those who would vote for the provincial New Democrats (SK NDP) or federal New Democrats (NDPC), Meili and Singh received positive favourability scores. Respondents who would vote for the Liberal Party (LPC) ranked Trudeau, Singh, and Meili favourably. Conservative Party (CPC) and Saskatchewan Party (SKP) prospective voters ranked Moe and O’Toole positively. Interestingly, Moe receives higher favourability ratings than O’Toole among both SKP (+80, Moe; +33, O’Toole) and CPC (+65, Moe; +38, O’Toole) prospective voters; O’Toole is the only leader who does not receive the greatest favourability rating from his party’s supporters.

The Viewpoint survey asked Saskatchewanians whether they believe that Saskatchewan should separate from the rest of Canada (Figure 12). This figure is pertinent given the recent rise in western separatist sentiment in the prairie provinces, further alluded to by the rise of the Buffalo Party (see our past research brief for further details). Among those who think that Saskatchewan should separate, Moe is the most favoured leader (+30) and Trudeau the least (-69). Impressions of Meili (-38) and Singh (-38) among supporters of separation are net negative. O’Toole (+17) is the only other leader perceived positively by supporters of separation.

Concluding Thoughts

Of both the provincial and federal major party leaders, Saskatchewan’s premier Scott Moe has the most positive impressions. In contrast, Prime Minister Trudeau receives the lowest net favourability scores. Moe has been a vocal critic of the actions of Trudeau’s federal government, including vaccination procurement, COVID-19 reopening plans, and the carbon tax; Moe’s resistance to these actions may contribute to the polarized attitudes towards the two leaders. At the provincial political level, Meili is relatively unknown. The federal political scene is quite different––Trudeau receives marked net negative impressions––exceeding the positive impressions of Moe. O’Toole is even less well-known than Meili, which may impact his favourability ratings. Singh receives relatively neutral scores across the analyses. This is notably different from Meili and O’Toole whose scores are obscured by their nonrecognition by the public. These findings represent a point-in-time picture of leader favourability in Saskatchewan, and sentiments may fluctuate with the mass vaccination and provincial reopening campaigns.

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021. The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.