Views of Political Leadership in Alberta

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca

May 17, 2021

The COVID-19 crisis has raised the profile of government leaders across Canada. Has it raised their popularity? Our latest Viewpoint Survey (March 1-8, 2021) probed Albertans’ attitudes about the prime minister, premier, and various party leaders as the province entered the third wave. Results reveal that opposition leaders are more popular than those in government. NDP leaders Jagmeet Singh and Rachel Notley are the only party leaders to enjoy positive favourability ratings, while many Albertans have yet to formulate firm feelings about federal Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. Impressions of Justin Trudeau and Jason Kenney are much more negative, and the nature of the reactions toward the two leaders tend to be more similar than expected.

Impressions of Leaders

We asked Albertans to use a single word to capture their impressions of the four main party leaders. The word clouds in Figure 1 illustrate the most common terms used to describe them; the larger the word, the more frequently it was used by respondents. Among the top ten terms used to describe Kenney, seven (7) were decidedly negative, two (2) were neutral, and one (1) was positive. Descriptions of Trudeau were similar, with six (6) of his top ten terms negative, two (2) positive, and two (2) neutral. Albertans tended to use the same terms to describe both the premier and prime minister. The words liar, idiot, and incompetent were in both in each leader’s top ten mentions. Conversely, impressions of Rachel Notley were decidedly more positive. Of the top ten words to describe the NDP leader, seven (7) were positive and three (3) were neutral; none were negative. The terms ascribed to Notley were the opposite of those ascribed to her provincial opponent. Where Kenney was described as a liar and dishonest, she was depicted as trustworthy and honest. Kenney was described as an idiot and arrogant, whereas Notley was viewed as smart and caring. O’Toole remains an enigma to many of Albertans. Of the top ten terms used to describe him, seven (7) were non- committal: don’t know, unknown, nothing, new, unsure, none, no opinion, and who.

Favourability Ratings

These overall impressions are captured in each leader’s favourability ratings (Figure 2). When asked whether they disliked or liked Trudeau, over half of Albertans (55 percent) had a negative impression of the prime minister. An even higher number had a negative view of Kenney (60 percent). The other three main party leaders were viewed negatively by 38 percent of Albertans. Notley (48 percent) and Singh (40 percent) had the highest positivity scores, while O’Toole remained unknown to one in five Albertans. Overall, only two of these party leaders – both New Democrats – were above water by this favourability measure (Figure 3).

There are noticeable differences among various groups of Albertans when it comes to their views on party leadership. Millennials, non-whites, women, and urbanites view Singh and Notley most favourably, for example (Figures 4 and 5). Indeed, only rural Albertans had a negative view of Notley. Trudeau was viewed negatively by all demographic groups except non-whites. Kenney failed to achieve a passing grade among any generational, ethnic, gender, or community group.

Albertans with some college or university education, and those with lower incomes, tended to like Singh and Notley (Figures 6 and 7). The former NDP premier was popular among all education and income groups except for those with trades training. Conversely, Trudeau and Kenney were below water among all education and income groups, and O’Toole had a net favourability rating only among those with high school education or below and those with mid-low incomes. Both New Democrat leaders had positive ratings among union and non-union workers, while their opponents were unpopular among both groups.

Favourability scores aligned with ideological self-placement and issue priorities (Figures 8 and 9). Trudeau, Singh, and Notley were more popular among Albertans on the left side of the political spectrum, while O’Toole and Kenney were more popular among those on the right. Centrists tended to like Kenney and Trudeau the least, and they only gave Notley a slight net positive rating. Albertans on the left tended to dislike conservative leaders more than they liked progressive leaders. In general, right-leaning Albertans were less harsh in their dislike for progressive leaders than left-wingers were in their assessment of conservatives.

Predictably, favourability scores also aligned with vote intention (Figures 10 and 11). We identified respondents’ vote intention by asking who they would support if a provincial or federal election were held tomorrow. Among those who would vote for the provincial New Democrats (ANDP) or federal New Democrats (NDPC), Notley, Singh, and Trudeau all received positive favourability scores. Provincial (UCP) and federal (CPC) voters gave O’Toole and Kenney positive ratings, although these were notably lower than the scores earned by other leaders among their own parties’ voters. Overall, NDP and Liberal voters at both levels were keener on their favoured party’s leaders than Conservative voters were of their own. Notably, those who would vote for the Liberal Party in a federal election favoured Notley almost as much as they favoured Trudeau. This sentiment was not reciprocated, in that provincial NDP voters were not as positive in their assessments of Trudeau.

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021. The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley.  It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.