Economic Situations and Perceptions during COVID-19 in Alberta and Saskatchewan 

Michelle Maroto | University of Alberta | maroto@ualberta.ca 

May 13, 2021

This research brief provides a snapshot of Albertans’ and Saskatchewanians' economic perceptions and situations in the spring of 2021. As Alberta and Saskatchewan muddle through a third wave of the pandemic, we offer an assessment of people's economic situations and perceptions across the two provinces. Results come from the 2021 Viewpoint Alberta Saskatchewan Study, which was fielded in March 2021. 

Context 

COVID-19 cases were rising in both provinces at this time due, in part, to the spread of new variants of the virus. Neither province had fully recovered economically from the pandemic, either. Although unemployment rates had declined since highs in the previous year, they also remained high with 7.3% of adults age 15 and older in Saskatchewan and 9.1% of adults in Alberta unemployed.[1] 

Despite improvements in employment, families across both provinces were still facing many financial hardships brought on by the pandemic and the broader economic downturn. According to our study, these hardships were not distributed equally across the provinces or across groups within them. Income and employment losses as a result of the pandemic were higher among racial minorities and younger generations. Respondents who faced COVID-19-related income declines were also more likely to report additional experiences of economic insecurity. 

[1] Statistics Canada. 2021. Table 14-10-0287-03 -- Labour force characteristics by province, monthly, seasonally adjusted. https://doi.org/10.25318/1410028701-eng  

COVID-19 Effects on Income and Employment across Provinces 

The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic impacts have clearly affected the employment and income situations of many households in Alberta and Saskatchewan with somewhat greater effects in Alberta, as shown in Figure 1. In Alberta, 56% percent of respondents reported no change in their employment situations between March 2020 and 2021, but 39% reported worsening employment situations, including job losses, a reduction of hours or income, or increased levels of job-related stress. Only 5% reported improved situations (Figure 1, left panel). The corresponding percentages for Saskatchewan were 63%, 33%, and 4%; fewer respondents in this province indicated that COVID-19 negatively affected their employment. 

In regard to household income situations, 43% of Albertans and 50% of Saskatchewanians reported that their incomes remained steady between March 2020 and 2021. Conversely, 29% and 27% reported that their incomes declined a little, and 21% and 17% reported that their incomes declined a lot (Figure 1, right panel). Very few respondents reported increases in their household incomes. 

The effects of COVID-19 were not uniform, with reported changes in income and employment varying across groups. Figure 2 plots the percentage of respondents indicating that they experienced a worsening employment situation as a result of COVID-19 across groups. Figure 3 presents the same information for worsening income. 

Beginning with employment effects in Figure 2, similar patterns for race, generation, and location emerged across provinces. Racial minority groups in Alberta and Saskatchewan were more likely than white people to experience worsening employment situations due to COVID-19.[2] Younger generations, especially Gen Z, reported the highest employment effects. However, differences across urban, suburban, and rural locations were limited. 

Although these findings were consistent across provinces, differences were apparent in regard to gender and education. In Alberta, men were more likely than women to report COVID-19-related negative employment effects, but no gender differences were present in Saskatchewan.[3] Additionally, respondents with a high school education or less were the most likely to report worsening employment situations in Alberta, but, again, few differences in education were present in Saskatchewan.[4] 

Figure 3 shows differences across groups and provinces in terms of how COVID-19 affected household income. In Alberta, men and women were equally likely to report household income declines, but racial minority groups were more likely than white people to report income declines. Further, those with some post-secondary education reported more declines in income than other education groups. Older respondents appeared to be doing better with only 40% of respondents in the Silent/Boomer generation experiencing income declines compared to 52% of Gen Z respondents, 53% of Millennials, and 56% of Gen X respondents. Rural/urban divides were again limited. 

Group differences in Saskatchewan were smaller than in Alberta, but nevertheless present. Here, similar percentages of men and women reported declines, and racial minority groups were more likely than white people to report income declines. In terms of education, people with a high school education or less were the most likely to report declines, but overall education differences were small. A clearer trend was present across generations where 58% of Gen Z-ers, 49% of Millennials, 45% of Gen-X-ers, and 34% of respondents in the Silent/Boomer generation experienced income declines. Finally, location divides were clearer in Saskatchewan; rural and urban residents were more likely than suburban residents to experience income declines. 

Figure 4 expands this comparison to include party affiliation and support for Western separatism. Party affiliation is determined by which party in Alberta or Saskatchewan respondents indicated they would vote for if an election were to be held that day, and separatist views indicate whether respondents believed that their province should separate from Canada and form an independent country. 

[2] Respondents were allowed to choose multiple options in response to a question that asked, “Which of the following best represents your racial or ethnic heritage?” For this data brief, those who included “white” as one of their options are coded as “white.” This resulted in slightly more conservative estimates of differences by race. 

[3] Although the survey allowed respondents to choose options other than male or female for their gender, only 13 Albertan respondents and 10 Saskatchewanian respondents chose other options, such as non-binary or transgender. Due to the small numbers, we have excluded these individuals from the gender analyses. 

[4] Education categories are grouped as follows: high school or less includes individuals with any education up to a high school diploma; some post-secondary includes individuals with some college or university or trade or university certificate; and university or beyond includes individuals who have completed a Bachelor's degree or any professional or graduate degrees.  

Figure 4 again plots the percentage of respondents indicating that they experienced a change in their employment situation (top panel) and a decline in their household income (bottom panel) as a result of COVID-19, with results for Alberta (left column) and Saskatchewan (right column). 

In Alberta, results show that Liberal party supporters and respondents who indicated that were members of other smaller parties, such as the Green or Independent parties, more often experienced negative employment and income effects due to COVID-19. In Saskatchewan, the economic effects of COVID-19 were more prominent among Progressive Conservative party supporters and undecided voters. 

In terms of support for separatism, respondents who supported separating from Canada were more likely to have experienced COVID-19-related employment losses and income declines. Gaps between supporters of separatism and non-supporters were larger in Alberta. For instance, in terms of income declines, 64% of Albertans who supported separatism reported income declines, compared to 47% of those who did not support separatism. Rates for these groups in Saskatchewan were 50% for separatism supporters and 43% for remainers. 

Together, these results show that COVID-19 has not affected everyone as equally as the saying, "We're all in this together" might imply. A considerable percentage of respondents across provinces experienced hardships directly related to COVID-19. Thirty-nine percent of Albertans and 33% of Saskatchewanians reported worsening employment situations and 50% of Albertans and 44% of Saskatchewanians reported income declines as a result of the pandemic. Experiences of these hardships, however, varied across groups. 

Economic Perspectives 

Respondents’ experiences with COVID-19 spilled over into many areas of life, influencing their economic situations and perspectives. This is evident when assessing respondents' views of their current financial situations compared to one year ago and their financial outlooks for the upcoming year. 

Figure 5 presents the percentage of respondents who viewed their current financial situation as better, the same, or worse than the previous year in Alberta (left column) and Saskatchewan (right column). Figure 6 presents the percentage of respondents who expected their financial situation for the upcoming year to be better, the same, or worse than this current year in Alberta (left column) and Saskatchewan (right column). Responses are grouped by whether the respondent experienced COVID-19-related income declines in both figures. 

Respondents' perceptions of current and future financial situations were remarkably similar across provinces. In both cases, these also depended on whether the respondents had experienced COVID-19-related income declines. As shown in Figure 5, approximately 90% of respondents with steady incomes viewed their current financial situations as better or the same as the previous year in both provinces. Among those with declining incomes, 63-66% viewed their financial situations as worse. More than one-third of those with declining incomes, however, did believe that their financial situations would improve in the coming year (Figure 6). 

The survey also asked respondents how much they agreed or disagreed with a series of statements regarding the economic futures of Alberta and Saskatchewan over the next decade. The question included a set of three positive feelings (contented, optimistic, and excited) and three more negative feelings (pessimistic, angry, and frightened). Figure 7 presents these results for Alberta (left) and Saskatchewan (right). 

Saskatchewanians reported more positive feelings and fewer negative feelings than Albertans. For instance, 29% of Saskatchewan residents reported that they were contented with the province's economic future compared to 20% of Albertans; 42% of Saskatchewanians reported feelings of optimism compared to 36% of Albertans; and 28% reported being excited versus 22% of Albertans. Differences were even more apparent when considering negative emotions. Among Saskatchewan residents, 34% reported feelings of pessimism, 25% reported being angry, and 32% reported being frightened. For Alberta residents, 49% reported feelings of pessimism, 42% reported being angry, and 51% reported being frightened. 

Importantly, respondents' views about the economic future of their provinces, especially those related to negative feelings, also depended on whether the respondent experienced a COVID-19-related income decline. Figure 8 reports these results for Alberta (top panel) and Saskatchewan (bottom panel). 

In both provinces, respondents with declining incomes were more likely to report feelings of pessimism, anger, and fear when thinking about their respective province's economic futures. For instance, in Alberta, 55% of adults with declining incomes reported that they were pessimistic about the future compared to 43% of those with steady incomes. In Saskatchewan, 38% of adults with declining incomes reported that they were pessimistic about the future compared to 30% of those with steady incomes. 

However, following from the results in Figure 7, negative feelings were still more common in Alberta, even after accounting for income-related COVID-19 effects. The results around being frightened really stand out in this regard. In Saskatchewan, 41% of respondents with declining incomes were frightened for the future compared to 56% in Alberta. 

Economic Security 

Despite the divergence in views about the economic futures of their provinces, levels of economic insecurity were similar across provinces. Economic security, in this regard, refers to people’s abilities to meet their monthly expenses and accommodate emergency expenses. Figure 9 presents results from two survey questions. The first (left panel) asked respondents to evaluate their level of difficulty in meeting expenses in recent months, and the second (right panel) asked if they would be able to accommodate an emergency expense of $1,000 or greater through their income or money in their savings accounts. Results are presented for Alberta (lighter colored bars) and Saskatchewan (darker bars). Figure 10 then presents the same information for respondents broken down by whether they experienced any income declines related to COVID-19. 

As shown in Figure 9, respondents in both provinces experienced difficulties in meeting expenses in recent months. In Alberta, 38% of respondents reported that it was very or somewhat difficult to meet expenses and 37% of respondents in Saskatchewan reported the same. In terms of accommodating emergency expenses, 37% of Alberta residents and 41% of Saskatchewan residents indicated that they would be unable to accommodate an expense of $1,000 or more using their savings. 

In both provinces, experiences with insecurity diverged based upon whether the respondent also saw their household income decline as a result of the pandemic, as shown in Figure 10. Across provinces, 57-58% of adults with declining incomes had a difficult time meeting their expenses compared to 19-20% of adults with steady incomes. Among adults with declining incomes, 43-54% reported that they could accommodate an emergency expense via their savings. For those with steady incomes, 71-73% reported that they could accommodate such an expense. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021. The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley.  It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.