Economic Perspectives and Security during COVID-19 

Michelle Maroto | University of Alberta | maroto@ualberta.ca 

Loleen Berdahl | University of Saskatchewan | loleen.berdahl@usask.ca 

Feo Snagovsky | University of Alberta | snagovsk@ualberta.ca 

December 9, 2020

Introduction 

As Alberta enters a second lockdown with COVID-19 cases at the highest they have been, it is important to assess people’s economic situations and perceptions over the course of this pandemic. Certain groups have been more affected by the virus and the measures taken to combat its spread, and these effects spill over to their broader perceptions regarding their economic situations. 

This research brief provides a snapshot of Albertans’ economic perceptions and situations in the summer of 2020. Results come from the 2020 Viewpoint Alberta Study, which was fielded in August 2020. Albertans were facing many financial hardships in summer 2020. Most notable among these were consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the collapse of oil prices, and austerity measures taken by the UCP government. These factors all worked to limit economic security among Albertans and likely contributed to pessimism about the future. However, it is important to note that all Albertans did not face the same hardships. Income and employment losses were highest among racial minorities and younger generations. 

COVID-19 Effects on Income and Employment in Alberta 

The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic impacts have clearly affected the employment and income situations of many Albertans, as shown in Figure 1. Although 67% percent of respondents reported no change in their employment situations between March and August 2020, 8% experienced permanent job losses, 8% experienced temporary job losses, and another 11% had their hours reduced (Figure 1, left panel). In addition, 6% of respondents reported other changes to their employment, such as increased hours and unrelated job shifts, over this time period. In regard to changing household income situations, 43% of respondents reported that their incomes remained steady between March and August 2020, 27% reported that their incomes declined a little, and 16% reported that their incomes declined a lot (Figure 1, right panel). Very few respondents reported increases in their household incomes. 

The economic effects of COVID-19 were not uniform; reported changes in income and employment varied across groups. Figure 2 plots the percentage of respondents indicating that they experienced a change in their employment situation (top panel) and a decline in their household income (bottom panel) as a result of COVID-19. Results are broken down by gender, race, education, generation, and urban/rural divides. 

Focusing first on gender, about one-third of male and female respondents reported a change in employment between March and August, but 54% of women reported declines in household income compared to 50% of men.[1] Differences were more apparent by race.[2] Members of racial minority groups experienced employment changes and income declines at a higher rate than white respondents. Forty-five percent of respondents from racial minority groups reported a change in employment compared to 29% of respondents who identified as white. Disparities reached over to income with 62% of racial minority respondents and 48% of white respondents experiencing income losses. 

Interestingly, respondents with a high school education or less or a university education or beyond appeared to experience changes in employment and declines in income more often than respondents with some post-secondary education. Looking at generations, older respondents appeared to be doing better with only 18% of respondents in the Silent/Boomer generation experiencing employment changes compared to 45% of Gen Z respondents, 41% of Millennials, and 36% of Gen X respondents. Notably, these differences are also likely associated with different employment levels prior to COVID-19; members of the Silent and Boomer generations are more likely to be retired. In regard to urban/rural divides, about one-third of respondents living in urban, suburban, and rural areas experienced employment changes. Declines in income were more common in urban areas with 54% of respondents reporting losses. 

Figure 3 expands this comparison to include party affiliation and support for Western separatism. Party affiliation is determined by which party in Alberta respondents indicated they would vote for if an election were to be held today, and separatist views indicate whether respondents believed that Alberta should separate from Canada and form an independent country. Figure 3 again plots the percentage of respondents indicating that they experienced a change in their employment situation (top panel) and a decline in their household income (bottom panel) as a result of COVID-19. 

Results show few differences by party affiliation in these outcomes. Liberal party supporters, however, appeared to be somewhat worse off than other groups. Forty-one percent of Liberal party supporters experienced a COVID-19-related change in employment, and 66% experienced a COVID-19-related decline in income. 

Larger differences were present when considering whether a respondent supported Alberta separating from Canada. Among respondents who voiced support for separation, 41% reported a COVID-19-related change in employment compared to 31% of respondents who wished to remain part of Canada. Similar disparities were present with income declines. Sixty-one percent of respondents who supported separatism reported income declines compared to 50% of respondents who wanted to remain part of Canada. 

[1] Although the survey allowed respondents to choose options other than male or female for their gender, only nine respondents chose other options, such as non-binary or transgender. Due to the small numbers, we have excluded these individuals from the analyses. 

[2] Respondents were allowed to choose multiple options in response to a question that asked, “Which of the following best represents your racial or ethnic heritage?” For this data brief, those who included “white” as one of their options are coded as “white.” This resulted in slightly more conservative estimates of differences by race.  

Economic Perspectives 

Respondents’ experiences with COVID-19 spilled over into many areas of life, influencing their economic situations and perspectives. This is evident when assessing Albertans’ views of their current financial situations compared to one year ago and their expected financial situations for the upcoming year. Figure 4 presents the percentage of respondents who viewed their current financial situation as better, the same, or worse than the previous year and who expected their financial situation for the upcoming year to be better, the same, or worse than this current year. Responses are grouped by whether the respondent experienced COVID-19-related income declines.  

In the aggregate, most Albertans saw their personal financial situations as being similar to the previous year, and most did not expect this to change in the future. Differences emerged, however, after breaking down these views by COVID-19 experience. 

Compared to 2019, 14% of Albertans whose incomes remained steady or increased over COVID-19 thought their financial situation was improving in 2020, 70% thought their situation was similar to the previous year, and only 16% reported worsening financial situations (Figure 4, left panel). Among respondents who experienced income declines, their assessment of their current financial situation was very different. In this group, 9% thought their financial situation was improving, 23% thought their situation was similar to the previous year, and 68% reported worsening financial situations. 

In the summer of 2020, most Albertans with steady or increasing incomes expected their financial situations to remain the same, but those with declining incomes were more divided about what the future held for them. When asked about their household's financial situation for the upcoming year, 23% of respondents with steady incomes said that they expected it to be better than it is now, 61% expected it to be the same, and 16% thought that it would worsen (Figure 4, right panel). However, 38% of respondents with declining incomes said that they expected their situations to improve in the upcoming year, 35% expected it to be the same, and 27% thought that it would worsen. Thus, it appears as though even among individuals with declining incomes, there is hope that their situations will turn around in the next year. 

Partisan divides also appear in these perspectives. Figures 5 and 6 present respondent views regarding their current financial situations compared to the previous year and their expected financial situations for the upcoming year. Responses are grouped by party affiliation (Figure 5) and views on separatism (Figure 6). 

Across political parties, few respondents saw their current financial situations as being better than the previous year (Figure 5, left panel). Differences were more apparent regarding whether respondents saw their situations as being the same or worse than the previous year. Among UCP respondents, 45% rated their financial situation as the same and 45% rated it as worse. However, 53% of NDP respondents reported that their financial situations were the same as last year, and only 36% saw their situations as worsening. The opposite was true for Liberals; 51% viewed their situations as worse than the previous year. This is likely connected to the larger percentage of Liberals who experienced income losses during the pandemic (Figure 3). 

In regard to expectations for the next year (Figure 5, right panel), Liberals, members of smaller parties, and those who did not intend to vote tended to be the most optimistic with 35-37% expecting their situations to improve. UCP and NDP members were less optimistic. 

Differences were also present when comparing Albertans by their views regarding separatism (Figure 6). Respondents who wanted Alberta to leave Canada and create a separate country were more likely to report worsening financial situations compared to last year (Figure 6, left panel), and they were more likely to believe that their financial situations would worsen in the upcoming year. Fifty-one percent of separatists reported worsening financial situations compared last year and 36% thought their situations would get even worse in the upcoming year. This is compared to 41% and 19% of respondents who wanted Alberta to remain a part of Canada. 

The survey also asked respondents how much they agreed or disagreed with a series of statements regarding Alberta's economic future over the next decade. The question included a set of three positive feelings (contented, optimistic, and excited) and three more negative feelings (pessimistic, angry, and frightened). As Figure 7 shows, respondents more often reported negative feelings about Alberta's economic future, but these views, especially those related to negative feelings, again depended on whether the respondent experienced a COVID-19-related income decline. 

Across both groups, few respondents reported being contented, optimistic, or excited. Among respondents who reported steady or increasing incomes, 20% agreed they felt contented, 36% agreed they felt optimistic, and 17% agreed they were excited. Among those with declining incomes, the corresponding percentages were 24%, 36%, and 20%. 

Percentages were greater for those who reported being pessimistic, angry, or frightened. Larger differences also appeared by income situations. Forty-two percent of respondents with steady or increasing incomes agreed they were pessimistic about the future, 35% reported being angry, and 41% agreed they were frightened. Among respondents with declining incomes, 49% agreed they were pessimistic about the future, 44% reported being angry, and 57% agreed they were frightened. The results around being frightened really stand out in regard to these different feelings; more than half of respondents with declining incomes were frightened for the future. 

Economic Security 

Differences between households with steady or increasing incomes and those with declining income were also apparent when considering aspects of economic security, or people’s abilities to meet their monthly expenses and accommodate emergency expenses. Figure 8 presents results from two survey questions. The first (left panel) asked respondents to evaluate their level of difficulty in meeting expenses in recent months, and the second (right panel) asked if they would be able to accommodate an emergency expense of $1,000 or greater through their income or money in their savings accounts. Both divide responses by the effects of COVID-19 on households’ incomes. 

Most households with steady or increasing incomes felt that they were able to meet their expenses and reported that they would be able to accommodate an emergency expense of $1,000 or more. Among these households, 75% reported that it had been somewhat or very easy to meet expenses over recent months and only 26% reported that it had been somewhat or very difficult to do so. In addition, 70% of these households felt that they would be able to accommodate an emergency expense of $1,000 or more through savings or income. 

Households who had experienced income declines in recent months were less sure about their abilities to meet expenses. Among these households, 38% reported that it had been somewhat or very easy to meet expenses over recent months and only 63% reported that it had been somewhat or very difficult to do so. In addition, only 48% of these households felt that they would be able to accommodate an emergency expense of $1,000 or more through savings or income. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The 2020 Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between August 17 and 30, 2020. The survey was deployed online by the Social Sciences Research Laboratories (SSRL). A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/35rtU9F. SSRL co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 825 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. 

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl, Elaine Hyshka, and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.