Trust in Political Leaders’ Handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Yang Yang | University of Saskatchewan | yang.yang@usask.ca

Kirsten Samson | University of Saskatchewan

Heather Young-Leslie | University of Alberta | heather.youngleslie@ualberta.ca

Tanya Park | University of Alberta | tmpark@ualberta.ca

August 9, 2021

In March 2021 our team released the 2021 Viewpoint survey, probing Albertans and Saskatchewanians about  their political attitudes and opinions one year into the COVID-19 pandemic. The queries in this brief were  stimulated by news reports of various political actors’ international travel at a time when public health advice  asked Canadians to not travel, to not even visit family or neighbours at Christmas. Did Albertans and Saskatchewanians trust politicians and public health officials to handle the pandemic? How did these results  compare to the 2020 Viewpoint survey? Did trust levels change after various politicians’ Christmas travels? Did  Albertans and Saskatchewanians think that politicians should be held to a higher standard than regular people  when it came to pandemic prevention measures? 

Trust in Leaders 

The Viewpoint survey measured whether or not Albertans and Saskatchewanians trusted their leaders to handle  the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2021. Figure 1 depicts Albertans’ levels of trust in 2021. Premier Jason Kenney  was trusted the least among leaders: 77.1 percent of respondents had little or no trust in Kenney while only 19.0  percent reported having a lot or full trust. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was also not trusted: a full 67.9 percent  of respondents reported they had little or no trust in Trudeau to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. This value can be contrasted to Canadians overall: Leger’s January 2021 poll indicates that 46 percent of Canadians distrust Trudeau (1). Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw appeared to be most trusted: 59.1  percent of respondents reported a lot or full trust in Dr. Hinshaw to handle the pandemic. Chief Public Health  Officer of Canada, Dr. Theresa Tam, was also trusted. Almost half (49.0 percent) of Albertans had a lot or full  trust in Dr. Tam to handle the pandemic. 

Figure 2 shows a similar pattern in Saskatchewan: 54.3 percent of respondents had little or no trust in Premier  Scott Moe to handle the pandemic, and 67.1 percent had little or no trust in Trudeau. This can be contrasted  with Saskatchewan’s Chief Medical Health Officer, Dr. Saqib Shahab. A full 61.8 percent of Saskatchewanians  reported a lot or full trust in Dr. Shahab to handle the pandemic and 48.8 percent reported a lot or full trust in  Dr. Tam. In both Saskatchewan and Alberta, the premiers and prime minister were trusted the least while the  health officials were trusted the most.  

Figure 1. Overall trust in Albertan leaders to handle the COVID-19 pandemic (2021). 

Figure 2. Overall trust in Saskatchewan leaders to handle the COVID-19 pandemic (2021)

In the 2020 Viewpoint survey, Albertans were also asked how much trust they had in leaders to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. Figure 3 compares respondents who indicated they had a lot or full trust in their leaders in 2020 and in 2021. Since 2020, the proportion of respondents who had a lot or full trust has decreased across all five leaders. Kenney saw the greatest decrease: in 2020, 29.0 percent of respondents indicated that they had a lot or full trust in Kenney to handle the COVID-19 pandemic; this decreased 10 percentage points in 2021 to 19.0 percent. Trust in one’s mayor or reeve decreased the least: 39.4 percent of 2020 respondents had a lot or full trust in their mayor or reeve and 37.1 percent reported a lot or full trust in 2021.

Figure 3. A lot or full trust in Albertan leaders to handle the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21).

Figure 4 also compares Albertans’ responses from 2020 to 2021. This figure compares the proportion of respondents who indicated little or no trust in political leaders to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2020 and 2021, the proportion of respondents who had little or no trust increased across all five leaders. This increase was largest for Kenney (63.4 percent in 2020; 77.1 percent in 2021) and smallest for mayors and reeves (49.6 percent in 2020; 50.9 percent in 2021).

Figure 4. Little or no trust in Albertan leaders to handle the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21).

Trust in Leaders After Christmas Travels

The Viewpoint 2021 survey took place in March, three months after several Members of the Legislative  Assembly (MLA) (in both Alberta and Saskatchewan) and Members of Parliament (MP) took Christmas holidays  to destinations outside of their province or the country. A total of six Alberta MLAs from the governing United  Conservative Party and one Saskatchewan MLA from the governing Saskatchewan Party left the country. Four  MPs left the country––two from the governing Liberal Party, one from the opposition Conservative Party, and  the final from the New Democratic Party. Following these vacations, political leaders commented on the holiday  decisions of their colleagues. To find out whether the leaders’ comments impacted respondents’ trust in leaders,  the Viewpoint survey asked, “when the following people responded to their colleagues’ Christmas travel, how  did it affect your trust in their ability to handle the COVID-19 pandemic?” Albertans’ level of confidence in their premier and prime minister was negatively impacted by their responses to  colleagues’ Christmas travels (Figure 5). Albertans reported feeling less confident in Kenney (57.4 percent) and  Trudeau (41.5 percent). When asked about Dr. Tam and Dr. Hinshaw, most respondents reported that their  confidence level did not change or increased for either health officer; 57.3 percent reported no change or an  increase in their confidence in Dr. Tam and 58.1 reported no change or an increase in their confidence in Dr.  Hinshaw. The pattern was similar in Saskatchewan (Figure 6), where respondents reported feeling less confident in their premier (31.7 percent) and prime minister (41.9). Although respondents reported declining confidence in their public health officials (Dr. Tam, 21.6 percent; Dr. Shahab, 17.1), this was reported at a lower frequency than politicians.

Figure 5. Trust in Albertan leaders based on their responses to colleagues’ Christmas travels (2021).

Figure 6. Trust in Saskatchewan leaders based on their responses to colleagues’ Christmas travels (2021).

Pandemic Prevention Measures and Standards for Politicians

To determine whether Albertans and Saskatchewanians thought that political leaders should model pandemic prevention measures, the Viewpoint survey asked whether politicians should be held to a higher standard than regular people, the same standard as regular people, or if politicians should be allowed to apply their own standards. Albertans (60.7 percent) were slightly more likely than Saskatchewanians (57.4) to think that politicians should be held to a higher standard than regular people. Very few Albertans (1.5 percent) and Saskatchewanians (1.6) believed that politicians should be allowed to apply their own standards.

Figure 7. Opinions regarding which standards politicians should be held to (2021).

Conclusion

Data from our March 2021 Viewpoint survey illustrates that Albertans had less trust in their premier than Saskatchewanians, while similar proportions of each province’s population had little to no trust in Trudeau’s ability to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. When comparing trust in Alberta between 2020 and 2021, it is clear that Albertans trusted their political leaders less to handle the pandemic. Leader responses to Christmas travel had negative impacts on all leaders, but premiers and the prime minister had the biggest declines in trust. Finally, most Albertans and Saskatchewanians agreed that politicians should be held to a higher standard than regular people when it came to pandemic prevention measures. For more information on COVID-19 and politics in Alberta and Saskatchewan, read this research brief.

Methodology of the Viewpoint Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey (2021) was conducted between March 1 and 8, 2021 (Alberta data) and March 1  and 10 (Saskatchewan data). The survey was deployed online by the Leger. A copy of the survey questions can  be found here: http://bit.ly/30VcYEY. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets  registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 802 responses  with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators  Loleen Berdahl and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by a Kule Research Cluster Grant and an Alberta Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University  of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey (2020) was conducted between August 17 and 30, 2020. The survey was deployed  online by the Social Sciences Research Laboratories (SSRL). A copy of the survey questions can be found here:  https://bit.ly/35rtU9F. SSRL co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered  panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 825 responses with a 17- minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen  Berdahl, Elaine Hyshka, and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of  Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.

Endnotes

1. Leger and The Vancouver Sun. Postmedia Survey: One Year of COVID Anniversary in Canada. (Leger, 2021). https://leger360.com/surveys/one-year-anniversary-of-covid-19-in-canada-survey/.