Attitudes towards the carbon tax in Alberta

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca 

Clare Buckley | University of Alberta | cbuckley@ualberta.ca

April 22, 2020

Introduction

Both the past provincial and federal election in Alberta focused on a number of key issues; however, there was arguably no issue more significant than the intersection of energy and environmental issues. Discussions of natural resources, climate change, pipelines, and the carbon tax dominated the media and political rhetoric in the province and throughout the country. As part of the Viewpoints Alberta Survey (1), respondents were asked their opinions and attitudes on several different questions relating to a carbon tax and climate change. Overall, respondents generally believe climate change is caused by human activity, are against a provincial carbon tax, are less sure of whether all Canadians should be paying a tax on carbon, and have not reduced their own consumption because of the tax.

General attitudes towards the carbon tax

Viewpoint Alberta Survey respondents were asked their agreement with two related statements about the carbon  tax: first, the provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax, and second, all Canadians should pay a tax  on carbon.  

In examining the overall sample, more than half of Albertans (55%) agreed that the provincial government should  eliminate the carbon tax. However, a fifth of respondents, the next most frequent response, were neutral,  choosing ‘neither agree nor disagree’. One-quarter of respondents (25%) disagreed that the provincial  government should eliminate the carbon tax. 

Respondents differed slightly when asked if all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon. While 49% of respondents  disagreed, a little over half of respondents either agreed (30%) or were neutral, selecting ‘neither agree nor disagree’ (21%).

Figure 1: The provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax

Figure 2: All Canadians should pay a tax on carbon

Demographic groups

A respondent’s gender did not contribute to significant differences in attitudes towards the carbon tax.  Approximately 40% of male and female respondents strongly agreed that the provincial government should  eliminate the carbon tax, and almost 40% strongly disagreed that all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon. 

Figure 3: The provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax

Figure 4: All Canadians should pay a tax on carbon

Respondents who identified themselves as white were more likely than non-white respondents to be against the carbon tax. While 42% of white respondents strongly agreed that the provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax, 32% of non-white respondents felt the same. Similarly, white respondents were more likely to disagree that all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon. While more than half of white respondents disagreed, 39% of non-white respondents disagreed that all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon. A combined 39% of non-white respondents either strongly agreed or agreed all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon, compared to 27% of white respondents.

Figure 5: The provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax

Figure 6: All Canadians should pay a tax on carbon

Agreement with a carbon tax varies by the community where the respondent lives. Nearly 60% of rural  respondents strongly agreed that the provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax, compared to 33%  of urban respondents. Over half of rural residents also strongly disagreed that all Canadians should pay a tax on  carbon, compared to approximately 30% of urban respondents. For each question, suburban residents fell  somewhere in between urban and rural residents, creating linear results as shown below. 

Figure 7: The provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax

Figure 8: All Canadians should pay a tax on carbon

Feelings towards the carbon tax varied by generational cohort (2). Those in younger generations are more supportive of carbon taxes than older generations. Of those in Gen Z, 37% agree the provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax, while 36% disagree. Within the Baby Boomer generation, 62% agree the provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax, while 20% disagree. Gen Z respondents are also more likely to say that all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon, with 46% agreeing compared to 22% of Baby Boomer respondents.

Figure 9: The provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax

Figure 10: All Canadians should pay a tax on carbon

Partisan and ideological identification

Attitudes towards the carbon tax appear to be divided along party lines. Party ID and placement on the left/right spectrum are both strong indicators of feelings towards a carbon tax. Those who identify with the United Conservative Party were more likely to agree that the provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax (82%) compared to those who identify with the New Democrats (24%) and Liberals (25%). United Conservatives were also more likely to disagree that all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon (73%) compared to New Democrats (20%) and Liberals (33%).

Figure 11: The provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax

Figure 12: All Canadians should pay a tax on carbon

Survey respondents were asked to place themselves on a left-right scale. Those who placed themselves on the far  right and centre-right were more likely to agree the provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax (89%  and 74%), compared to those on the far left and centre-left (8% and 28%). While 25% of those in the middle  neither agreed nor disagreed that the province should eliminate the carbon tax, the most common answer was  strongly agree (37%). In response to the statement that all Canadians should pay a tax on carbon, those who  identify in the centre disagreed (49%) more than they agreed (23%). 

Figure 13: The provincial government should eliminate the carbon tax

Figure 14: All Canadians should pay a tax on carbon

Agreement with carbon tax uses and criticisms

Respondents were asked their agreement with statements regarding carbon tax uses. Respondents were most in disagreement with the statement that the carbon tax is effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (53%). Many Albertans were undecided about the other uses of a carbon tax, such as raising provincial revenue to provide services (33%) and helping to secure social licenses for resource development projects (38%). Still, respondents were more likely to disagree that the carbon tax raises provincial revenue (37%) compared to those who agree (21%), as well as disagreeing that the carbon tax helps to secure the social license for resource development projects (38%) compared to those who agree (13%).

Figure 15: Agreement with carbon tax uses

Oppositely, respondents were more likely to agree with carbon tax criticisms. When asked their agreement on whether the carbon tax is just a way for governments to make money, 64% agreed. Similarly, 59% agreed that the carbon tax will have little environmental impact, and 62% agreed that the carbon tax makes the cost of living too expensive.

Figure 16: Agreement with carbon tax criticisms

Primary cause of climate change

When asked their opinion on the primary cause of climate change, the majority of respondents answered that climate change exists primarily because of human activity (52%), though 36% answered that it was due to natural patterns and 11% answered that there is no solid evidence of climate change.

Figure 17: Primary Cause of Climate Change

Demographic groups

Again, attitudes towards climate change varied across generational lines. Younger generations such as Gen Z were more likely to say that climate change was due to human activity (73%) compared to natural patterns (21%), while almost 40% of Baby Boomers responded that climate change was due to natural patterns.

Figure 18: Primary Cause of Climate Change

A second demographic factor affecting respondents’ views on the primary cause of climate change is the community where the respondent lives. Urban respondents were more likely to agree that climate change exists because of human activity (60%), while approximately half of rural respondents said that climate change exists primarily because of natural patterns (51%).

Figure 19: Primary Cause of Climate Change

Who should have influence?

Respondents were asked to judge how much influence/ say various actors should have in climate change policy and in building pipelines across provincial borders. On climate change policy, half of respondents (50%) answered that climate scientists should have a lot of influence, the most common answer. Respondents thought climate scientists should have less say in building pipelines, with 24% agreeing they should have a lot of say, though 45% felt they should have some say. In total, 87% of respondents felt the general public and 87% felt the energy industry should have some form of a say (whether it is a lot or some) in building pipelines that cross provincial borders. The lowest combined percentage was for Indigenous leaders, where 22% of respondents felt they should have no say at all. Still, 79% of respondents felt Indigenous leaders should have some form of a say.

Figure 20:

Fuel consumption

When asked whether they have reduced their fuel consumption since the carbon tax was introduced, a majority of respondents answered that they have not made any adjustments (64%), compared to those who have reduced their fuel consumption to a considerable degree (11%) and to a moderate degree (26%). Interestingly, these numbers remain consistent across urban, suburban, and rural demographic groups, with 64% of both urban and suburban and 63% of rural respondents answering that they have not made any adjustments.

Figure 21: Since the carbon tax was introduced, have you reduced your fuel consumption?

Carbon tax impact on the economy

Almost half of respondents (48%) answered that the Alberta economy will be weaker over the long term if a price or tax on carbon emissions is used to try to shift behaviour. One third of respondents answered that there will be no real impact on the economy, and 18% of respondents answered the Alberta economy will be stronger from a price or tax on carbon emissions.

Figure 22: Over the long term, do you think the economy of Alberta will be stronger or weaker if a price or tax on carbon emissions is used to try shift  behavior or do you think there will be no real impact on the economy?

Reducing Emissions

Finally, respondents were asked their opinions on how Alberta is doing at reducing emissions. The most common answer was that Alberta is doing the right amount to reduce emissions (44%), followed by the answer that Alberta should do more to reduce emissions (35%). Almost one fifth of respondents answered that Alberta is doing more than it should to reduce emissions.

Figure 23: In your opinion, how is Alberta doing at reducing emissions?

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between October 22 and November 21, 2019. The survey was deployed online by Qualtrics. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/2PvQV2C. Qualtrics co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 820 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Jared Wesley and Loleen Berdahl. It was funded by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.

Endnotes

1. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was funded by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (University of Alberta) and the College of Arts and Science (University of Saskatchewan). The survey was completed for the research team, led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl and Jared J. Wesley. Neither the funding bodies nor the research team are responsible for the analyses or interpretations presented here.

2. Generational breakdown is as follows: Silent Generation: Born before 1944; Baby Boomer: Born 1944 to 1964 Gen X: Born 1965 to 1979; Millennials: Born 1980 to 1994; Gen Z: Born since 1995