Bridges Over Firewalls: Albertans’ Views on the Fair Deal

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca 

Nick Carlson | University of Alberta | nrcarlso@ualberta.ca 

Loleen Berdahl | University of Saskatchewan | loleen.berdahl@usask.ca 

October 28, 2020

Introduction 

In Fall 2019, the Government of Alberta struck a panel of politicians and citizens to “consult with Albertans on how best to define and secure a fair deal for Alberta” within Confederation. The panel consulted with experts, held open town hall meetings, and undertook research to inform its May 2020 Report to Government. 

Our August 2020 Viewpoint Alberta survey posed questions on 15 of the Fair Deal Panel’s recommendations, measuring the level of support and importance Albertans place on the various reform proposals. 

The first three items in the Panel’s mandate required them to explore breaking ties with key national institutions: the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). These “firewall” measures were proposed two decades ago in an open letter to then-Premier Ralph Klein, penned by Alberta conservatives Stephen Harper, Tom Flanagan, Ted Morton, Rainer Knopff, Andrew Crooks, and Ken Boessenkool. 

The Viewpoint Alberta 2020 survey results suggest Albertans remain divided over the firewall approach, with most preferring not to create a provincial tax collection agency, pension system, or police force. Conversely, Albertans favour measures that would strengthen ties with the rest of Canada, including reducing internal trade barriers, reforming the Senate, and working with other governments to gain tidewater access. 

Resistance to a Firewall Approach

Figure 1 depicts the relative acceptance of firewall policies embodied in several Fair Deal recommendations. Respondents were asked to rate their level of support for a proposal on a scale of 0 (completely oppose) to 10 (completely support). None of the top three firewall proposals reached an average of 5 on the support scale. 

Albertans were least supportive of replacing the CPP with an Alberta Pension Plan. Only 23 percent of Albertans supported the move, with 56 percent opposed (Figure 2). Those most opposed included New Democrats (82 percent); those on the left of the political spectrum (77 percent); people over 55 years-old (69 percent); women (60 percent, compared to 53 percent among men); and those who live in the suburbs (60 percent). 

Albertans were similarly opposed to replacing the CRA with an Alberta-based tax collection agency (see Figures 1 and 2). NDP supporters (76 percent) and those on the left (70 percent) were most likely to oppose the measure, while UCP supporters (32 percent), those on the right (42 percent), and those in rural areas (35 percent) were most favourable. 

Of the three firewall policies, support was highest for the notion of replacing the RCMP with an Alberta Police Service; just over one-in-four Albertans favoured the move (27 percent), with half opposing it. Over one-in-three Albertans in rural areas supported the measure (35 percent). There was also a sizeable gender gap, with men more likely to favour replacing the RCMP (32 to 22 percent) and women more likely to oppose it (53 to 47 percent). Seventy percent of New Democrats opposed the establishment of an Alberta Police Service, compared to 43 percent of UCPers. One in 3 UCP supporters favoured severing the contract with the RCMP (34 percent). 

The Fair Deal panel also weighed in on two offense-minded measures meant to demonstrate Alberta’s displeasure with its place in Confederation. The first would be an attempted constitutional amendment to remove the equalization principle from the Constitution of Canada. Albertans place a middling level of support and importance behind the idea (Figure 3). Forty five percent of Albertans support this measure, while 28 percent are opposed (Figure 4). Support was relatively even among men (45 percent) and women (44 percent), although women were more likely to report being neutral on the issue (32 percent) and men opposed (32 percent). Opposition was highest among New Democrats (51 percent), left-wingers (49 percent), people aged 18 to 34 (42 percent). Support was highest among UCP supporters (69 percent), right-wingers (65 percent), people over 55 (62 percent), and those in rural areas (54 percent). If a promised provincial referendum were held on the issue, the “yes” side would have a sizeable advantage heading into the campaign. 

The second offense-minded measure involves challenging federal legislation that encroaches on provincial jurisdiction. 49 percent of Albertans support this notion, while 23 percent stand opposed (Figure 4). 

Other measures aimed at providing the Alberta government with more autonomy over the province’s affairs received higher levels of support. Albertans support and place a high level of importance on gaining more control over immigration, for instance (Figure 5). Half of our respondents supported such a move (Figure 6). Albertans placed lower levels of support and importance on establishing a Chief Firearms Officer in the province, but felt generally more positive than negative about the recommendation. 

Support for Building Bridges 

Economic Bridges

Albertans were generally more favourable towards Fair Deal recommendations that involved building stronger economic ties with the rest of Canada. This included working with other jurisdictions to gain tidewater access, reducing internal trade barriers, and reforming fiscal stabilization (Figure 5). A majority of Albertans support each of these initiatives, and fewer than 1 in 5 stand opposed (Figure 6). Such high levels of support and importance suggest Albertans want their provincial government to prioritize work with its federal and provincial counterparts to strengthen the economic union; they also suggest Albertans want the other governments to work constructively toward those ends. 

West Still Wants In

Albertans also appear supportive of Fair Deal proposals reminiscent of the Reform Party’s “West Wants In” project. Respondents placed a relatively high level of importance on reforming the Senate, redistributing seats in the House of Commons, and securing more federal government jobs in the West (Figure 9). As with the economic bridge-building initiatives, over half of Albertans supported these measures, and 20 percent or fewer opposed. 

Summary

Overall, our survey suggests Albertans are more supportive of a bridge-building approach with the rest of Canada and less-supportive of measures that would build a firewall around the province. Illustrated in Figure 11, the three least popular Fair Deal proposals are three of the most isolationist – replacing the CPP, CRA, and RCMP. Conversely, the three most popular – reforming internal trade and the Senate, and working with other jurisdictions to gain tidewater access – would involve enhancing intergovernmental relations. Offense-minded approaches to removing equalization from the constitution and challenging federal legislation that encroaches on provincial jurisdiction were neither as popular nor as important in the minds of Albertans. 

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between August 17 and 30, 2020. The survey was deployed online by the Social Sciences Research Laboratories (SSRL). A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/35rtU9F. SSRL co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 825 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Loleen Berdahl, Elaine Hyshka, and Jared Wesley. It was funded in part by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.