Support for Pierre Poilievre and Freedom Convoy Sympathy in Alberta
Feo Snagovsky | University of Alberta | feodor.snagovsky@ualberta.ca
September 14, 2022
Introduction
On Saturday September 10, Pierre Poilievre swept to victory as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. He won a majority of both votes and points in every province and territory on the first ballot, winning approximately 71% of the total first preference votes, as well as just over 80% of first preferences in Alberta. While opinion polls had predicted Mr. Poilievre would win on the first ballot, the magnitude of the victory suggests the Conservative Party of Canada is united behind their new leader.
After Mr. Poilievre was declared the winner of the leadership race, attendees of the announcement reportedly began to chant “freedom” – a defining message of his campaign. Indeed, Mr. Poilievre’s high-profile support of the Freedom Convoy was amplified this message even before he launched his leadership bid. Given these links, it is worth unpacking the relationship between support for Mr. Poilievre’s leadership and sympathy for the so-called “Freedom” movement.
Who Were Freedom Convoy Supporters?
In a previous research brief, we examined the broad strokes of Freedom Convoy support in Alberta based on data from the Viewpoint Alberta survey. As we demonstrated, most Albertans did not support the Convoy’s objectives or its methods, with only four in ten Albertans supporting its objectives and one-third supporting its methods. There were clear partisan divisions, with United Conservative Party supporters being much stronger supporters of the movement.
These attitudes can also be split among other socio-demographic lines. As Figure 1 shows, White Albertans, those who live in rural areas, those without a university education and those who make less than $40,000 were more sympathetic to the Convoy’s objectives. However, important differences also emerge with regards to federal partisanship – while only about 14 and 15 percent of those who supported the Liberals and NDP, respectively, supported the Convoy’s objectives, a majority (55 per cent) of Conservative Party of Canada supporters[1] in Alberta also sympathize with the Convoy’s aims. This is the context of the party that Mr. Poilievre now leads.
Figure 1: Albertans’ Support for the Freedom Convoy’s Objectives
Source: Viewpoint Alberta Survey 2022 (n= 2224). Weighted data.
How Strong is Support for Freedom Convoy in the Poilievre Coalition?
While a majority of CPC supporters in Alberta sympathized with the Freedom Convoy’s objectives overall, there are striking differences when it comes to those who backed Mr. Poilievre’s victory. Our survey was conducted when Mr. Poilievre’s main rivals were Jean Charest and Patrick Brown, who were seen to represent a more moderate wing of the Conservative Party. Indeed, among Albertans overall who would have preferred a Poilievre victory, 65 per cent sympathized with the Convoy’s objectives. This figure goes up to 67% when we zoom in to CPC supporters, specifically.
By contrast, the overwhelming majority of those who would have preferred Charest or Brown to lead the Party opposed the Convoy’s objectives. Among all Albertans – which encompasses a significant number of Liberal and NDP supporters – 85 per cent opposed the Convoy’s objectives. Among CPC supporters, that number was 78 per cent – still an overwhelming majority.
Figure 2: Support for the Freedom Convoy’s Objectives by Preferred CPC Leader
Source: Viewpoint Alberta Survey 2022. Weighted data.
How Strong is Support for Pierre Poilievre Among the Freedom Convoy Supporters?
Unpacking the Poilievre coalition is not the same thing as unpacking the Convoy coalition, as many people who supported Mr. Poilievre did not sympathize with the Convoy, and many Convoy supporters did not prefer Mr. Poilievre as leader. However, as Figure 3 shows, there is a significant degree of overlap between these attitudes.
Among Albertans who supported the Freedom Convoy, 89 per cent would have preferred Mr. Poilievre to Mr. Charest or Mr. Brown. Among CPC supporters who also sympathized with the Convoy’s objectives, that number was close to 93 per cent. By contrast, Albertans who opposed the Convoy’s objectives were much more likely to prefer Mr. Charest or Mr. Brown as leader. Among CPC supporters who did not sympathize with the Convoy (which recall was almost half of the Party), Mr. Poilievre was still the clear choice however, a much larger proportion (37 per cent) would have preferred Mr. Charest or Mr. Brown at the helm.
Source: Viewpoint Alberta Survey 2022. Weighted data.
Concluding Thoughts
Mr. Poilievre has a strong mandate from Conservative Party of Canada supporters to take the Party in his preferred direction. Indeed, 80.1 per cent of CPC members in Alberta voted for Mr. Poilievre, a figure which is virtually identical to the 80.5 per cent of CPC supporters in our survey from April-May 2022 who would have preferred Mr. Poilievre to his two main rivals. Based on the results of our survey, the voters who propelled Mr. Poilievre to victory strongly supported the Freedom Convoy, compared to the inverse relationship for his rivals. We also saw overwhelming levels of support among those who supported the Freedom Convoy for his leadership.
Given Mr. Poilievre’s support for the Convoy during the Ottawa occupation and Coutts blockade, as well as his supporters chants of “freedom” when his election victory was announced on Saturday, we should expect his leadership to embody many of the same themes and attitudes as we approach the next federal election.
Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey
The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between April 8 and May 9, 2022. The survey was deployed online by Pollara. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/3LelxQi. Pollara co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 2,224 responses with a 15-minute average completion time. Split samples were employed for certain survey questions. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Michelle Maroto, Feodor Snagovsky, Jared Wesley, and Lisa Young. It was funded in part by a grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta.
[1] We define CPC supporters as those who voted for the CPC in 2021, or those who did not vote for whatever reason, but would have voted for the CPC had they cast a ballot at all.
