Alberta and the Rest of Canada

Daniel Béland | McGill University | daniel.beland@mcgill.ca

Loleen Berdahl | University of Saskatchewan | loleen.berdahl@usask.ca

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca

Amy Vachon-Chabot | University of Alberta | vachonch@ualberta.ca

June 15, 2020

Introduction

Fall 2019 was a difficult time for many Albertans. As the province struggled with significant provincial economic  downturn stemming largely from lower oil prices, many Albertans expressed dissatisfaction with other parts of  Canada, arguing that the federal and other provincial governments failed to properly support (or even opposed) pipeline projects seen as vital for the survival of the province’s economy, and that Alberta did not benefit from national programs, particularly the federal equalization program (1). In this context, public discussions about  Alberta separatism grew increasing attention, particularly after the October federal election. In November 2019,  Premier Jason Kenney announced the creation of a Fair Deal Panel to look at ways to make Alberta more  autonomous vis-à-vis the federal government and the rest of Canada. As the name of the panel suggests, the  idea that the federal system is not fair to Alberta was a top of mind issue in the province.  

We conducted the Viewpoint Alberta survey around the time Premier Kenney announced the creation of the  Fair Deal Panel. The results illustrate the sense of unease many Albertans felt about the relationship between  their province, the federal government, and the rest of Canada. 

Dissatisfaction with Federalism

The survey finds that Albertans were clearly dissatisfied with Canadian federalism and with Canada. Fully 70% of the respondents believed that the federal government treated Alberta worse than other provinces, compared to only 5% who thought Alberta was treated better than other provinces (Figure 1). When asked about whether Alberta gets the respect it deserves from the rest of the country, 75% of respondents responded “no” (Figure 2), and 84% of respondents reported that anger towards Ottawa was increasing (Figure 3).

The results illustrate the sense of unease many Albertans felt about the relationship between 

their province, the federal government, and the rest of Canada.

Figure 1: In general, does the federal government treat Alberta better, worse, or about the same as other provinces?

Figure 2: In your opinion, is Alberta treated with the respect it deserves in Canada?

Figure 3: Based on what you’ve seen, heard and/or read, do you feel the number of Albertans who are angry about Ottawa’s treatment of Alberta is increasing, decreasing, or remaining the same?

Fiscal Federalism

Albertans’ dissatisfaction extended to the fiscal side of the federal compact, as 76% of those surveyed thought that Alberta did not receive its fair share of federal spending and transfers (Figure 4). When asked specifically about equalization payments, 69% of respondents strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that Canada’s equalization system was unfair towards Alberta (Figure 5).

Figure 4: Thinking about all the money the federal government spends on different programs and on transfers to the provinces, do you think Alberta receives more than its fair share, less than its fair share, or about its fair share?

Figure 5: Canada’s system of equalization payments is unfair to Alberta.

Separatist Attitudes

Roughly three in ten (29%) of Albertans supported outright independence (Figure 6). These separatists reported a number of specific factors as having driven their desire for independence (Figure 7). Top among these is Canada’s equalization system (83% of separatists reported leaving equalization matters a great deal), tax policy (78%), and economic policy (71%). Lower on the list are environmental, immigration, social and cultural policy (ranging from 61-69%). These results suggest that economic and fiscal policy matters were top of mind for separatists.

Figure 6: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?

Figure 7: People support Alberta separatism for a wide range of reasons. How much do each of the factors matter to you in terms of why you feel Alberta should leave Canada?

These results suggest that economic and fiscal policy matters were top of mind for 

separatists. Lower on the list are environmental, immigration, social and cultural policy.

Alberta’s Future in Canada

Albertans saw their province remaining in Canada in the future: when asked about whether independence is a  real possibility, only 9% of Alberta answered that it was very likely to happen or will happen (Figure 8). Clearly,  despite growing support for Alberta independence, this idea was not widely perceived as a realistic possibility.  Yet the fact that Albertans saw their future as being within Canada does not mean they were enthusiastic about  this. When asked to think about Alberta's position within Canada over the next decade (Figure 9), the dominant  emotions expressed were anger (51% felt strongly or somewhat angry about Alberta's position within Canada  over the next 10 years), fear (50%), and pessimism (48%). Only 32% of respondents were strongly or somewhat  optimistic about Alberta's position within Canada over the next decade, while even fewer were excited (22%) or  contented (20%).

Figure 8: To what extent do you consider Alberta separation a real possibility?

Figure 9: When I think about Alberta’s position within Canada over the next ten years I feel…

Perceptions of Alberta within federalism and of Alberta’s future economy were also bleak: 63% of Albertans  strongly or somewhat agree that other parts of Canada will always be looked after before Alberta, regardless of  who is in power in Ottawa (Figure 10), and 48% of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed that Alberta’s best  days are behind it (Figure 11).  

Figure 10: No matter who’s in charge in Ottawa, other parts of Canada will always be looked after before Alberta.

Figure 11: Alberta’s best days are behind it.

Albertans saw their province remaining in Canada in the future… Yet the fact that Albertans

saw their future as being within Canada does not mean they were enthusiastic about it.

Partisan and Ideological Identification

While the vast majority of Albertans felt disrespected by the rest of Canada, there were clear partisan and ideological fault lines. For example, nine in 10 United Conservative Party (UPC) supporters felt the federal government treated Alberta worse than other provinces, compared to 52% of NDP and 47% of Liberal supporters (Figure 12). Ideologically, those on the far right (91%) and centre-right (83%) of the spectrum felt Alberta was treated worse, compared with less than half of those people on the far left (40%) and centre-left (49%). Very similar patterns are seen when it comes to whether Albertans felt their province received its fair share of federal transfers (Figure 13), or whether Alberta received respect from the rest of Canada (Figure 14). Partisan and ideological differences were far less pronounced when Albertans were asked whether the number of Albertans who were angry about Ottawa’s treatment of Alberta was increasing, decreasing, or remaining the same (Figure 15). While UCP identifiers were more likely to feel the anger was increasing (92%), New Democrats (85%) and Liberals (80%) were also sensitive to the rising tensions. Interestingly, people at both poles of the political spectrum – far right (96%) and far left (89%) – were most likely to report rising anger among Albertans, while those in the centre (78%) were somewhat less likely to perceive it.

Figure 12: In general, does the federal government treat Alberta better, worse, or about the same as other provinces?

Figure 13: Thinking about all the money the federal government spends on different programs and on transfers to the provinces, do you think Alberta receives more than its fair share, less than its fair share, or about its fair share?

While the vast majority of Albertans felt disrespected by the rest of Canada, there were clear

partisan and ideological fault lines.

Figure 14: In your opinion, is Alberta treated with the respect it deserves in Canada?

Figure 15: Based on what you’ve seen, heard and/or read, do you feel the number of Albertans who are angry about Ottawa’s treatment of Alberta is increasing, decreasing, or remaining the same?

UCP identifiers were the most likely to be separatists, with nearly half (46%) having agreed that Alberta should separate from Canada and form an independent country. By comparison, only 10% of NDP and 11% of Liberal identifiers felt the province should leave Confederation. Separatists were concentrated on the extreme right of the political spectrum, where a full 68% of people on the far right felt Alberta should form an independent country. Support for separatism dwindled among people in the centre-right (36%) and centre (27%), and dropped dramatically for those on the centre-left (16%) and the far left (11%).

Figure 16: Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?

Regardless of partisanship, few respondents felt separation was a likelihood. New Democrats were most skeptical of the possibility of Alberta separatism coming to fruition (44% of NDP identifiers felt that the province would never leave Confederation, and 39% felt it was very unlikely). Liberals reported similar levels of skepticism. A majority of UCP supporters felt that separation would either never happen (16%) or was very unlikely (39%). Only 12% of UCP supporters felt separation was very likely to happen, with 4% having felt it would happen. Looking at ideological positions, over half of people on the far right felt separatism could, is likely to, or will happen. Among those on the centre-right, a majority felt separatism was either unlikely (41%) or would never happen (21%). Skepticism over separation was highest on the left side of the spectrum, where almost 8 in 10 felt that it was unlikely or would never happen.

Figure 17: To what extent do you consider Alberta separation a real possibility? Is this something you think:

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between October 22 and November 21, 2019. The survey was deployed online by Qualtrics. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/2PvQV2C. Qualtrics co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 820 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Jared Wesley and Loleen Berdahl. It was funded by an Alberta-Saskatchewan Research Collaboration Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Alberta and the College of Arts and Science at the University of Saskatchewan.

Endnotes

1. Alberta taxpayers contribute to federal tax revenues, which the federal government allocates to provinces based on an established formula. The Government of Alberta has not received equalization transfers since the early 1960s, due to the province’s higher-than-average fiscal capacity.