Albertans & Equalization: Divided and Misguided?

Jared Wesley | University of Alberta | jwesley@ualberta.ca 

October 13, 2021

Albertans are voting in a referendum this month. On the ballot: whether to remove the equalization  principle from the constitution. How do Albertans feel about the measure, and just how much do they  understand about equalization? Our Viewpoint Alberta team was in the field immediately following the 2021 federal election. The results  of that survey illustrate just how divided and in many ways misguided Albertans are about the signature  program in Canada’s system of fiscal federalism. In the interests of full disclosure, the author of this Research Brief co-authored an opinion piece for CBC News supporting the “no” side of the referendum (1).

The Referendum Question

The constitutional referendum is being held in conjunction with municipal elections, voting for which closes on October 18. When asked how they would vote on removing equalization from the constitution, 43 percent of Albertans answered “yes.” This proportion has remained the same since our March 2021 Viewpoint Survey. At present, the “no” side trails at 26 percent, with 31 percent of respondents indicating that they would either not vote or don’t know how they would cast their ballot. The “no” side has gained 6 percentage points since March 2021, and the proportion of people saying “don’t know” has declined by the same amount.

The Referendum Question:  

"Should Section 36(2) of the Constitution Act, 1982 — Parliament and the  

Government of Canada’s commitment to the principle of making equalization  

payments — be removed from the Constitution?"

Figure 1. Vote Intention in the Equalization Referendum

In terms of age groups, “yes” side support is strongest among people over 65 years-old (58 percent) and people 55 to 64 (49 percent). It is also stronger among men (51 percent) than women (38 percent). People in Central (57 percent) and Northern Alberta (48 percent), and people in rural areas (48 percent) are most likely to vote “yes,” as are people with trades or university certificates (50 percent).

Figure 2. Vote Intention in the Equalization Referendum by Sociodemographic Groups

The largest divides are partisan and ideological, however. Over two-thirds of Conservative Party of Canada voters (68 percent) and three-quarters of People’s Party voters (76 percent) indicate they will vote “yes” in the equalization referendum. Provincially, 63 percent of United Conservative Party (UCP) voters would do the same. This compares with 47 percent of Liberal Party of Canada voters, 42 percent of federal New Democrat Party (NDPC) voters, and 41 percent of Alberta New Democrat (ANDP) voters. No provincial or federal or provincial party had a majority of its voters supporting the “no” side.

Figure 3. Vote Intention in the Equalization Referendum by Federal/Provincial Party Choice

There is a clear, linear pattern when it comes to left-right ideology and the propensity to vote “yes.” While two-thirds of Albertans who placed themselves on the far left of the spectrum would vote “no,” almost three-quarters (73 percent) on the far right would vote “yes.” People in the centre are more likely to vote “yes” (37 percent) than “no” (18 percent), but a full 41 percent of centrists indicate they don’t know how they would cast their ballots.

Figure 4. Vote Intention in the Equalization Referendum by Ideological Self-Placement 18

Predictably, Albertans’ level of attachment to their province and country also have an impact on their attitudes about the referendum. A majority of respondents who reported being very attached to Alberta (58 percent) and not very attached (58 percent) or not at all attached to Canada (61 percent) indicated they’d vote “yes.” People who are not very attached to Alberta (48 percent) and very attached to Canada (32 percent) were most likely to vote “no.”

Figure 5. Vote Intention in the Equalization Referendum by Attachment to Alberta and Canada

We also asked respondents to indicate how important removing equalization from the constitution was  to them. Using a ten-point scale -- where 0 meant entirely unimportant, 5 meant “I’m indifferent” and 10 meant extremely important -- the average respondent answered 5.4. This level of importance is higher  than respondents applied to creating an Alberta Pension Plan (4.8) or establishing a provincial police force  (4.7). But it was lower than the importance respondents placed on collaborating with other provinces to  reduce trade barriers (6.3), adjusting the distribution of House of Commons seats (6.1), reforming the  Senate to be more democratic (5.9).  

People on the right side of the spectrum (7.5), Conservative Party of Canada voters (7.3), and UCP voters  (7.2) rated removing equalization from the constitution the highest in terms of importance. People in  Southern (6.7), Central (6.5), and Northern (6.5) Alberta saw it as being more important than did Calgarians (6.3) or Edmontonians (5.7). As all of the groups viewing equalization as being more important  are also more likely to vote “yes” in the referendum, this data suggests that the “yes” side may have a  motivational advantage in terms of voter turnout.

The “yes” side appears to have a motivational advantage in terms of likelihood to

vote in the referendum.

This is reinforced by the fact that, among “yes” voters in the referendum, the average importance placed on removing equalization from the constitution was 8.1 out of 10. For “no” voters, the average was 4.0, and those that “don’t know,” 5.2. Among people who are “certain” to vote in the municipal elections, 49 percent intend to cast a “yes” ballot, 29 percent intend to vote “no,” and 21 percent don’t know how they’ll vote.

Albertans’ Knowledge of Equalization

In addition to gauging their support for removing equalization from the constitution, we asked Albertans  a series of eight true or false questions about equalization. These questions were designed to test  respondents’ basic knowledge of how the program works, drawing on a number of prominent myths and  misconceptions. The questions were vetted by equalization experts to ensure accuracy. 

The average respondent failed this quiz, scoring just 3.1 out of 8. Not a single respondent scored a perfect 8 on the test. Respondents were most knowledgeable about the overall purpose of equalization, with 69 percent knowing that the program “supports provinces that have weaker than average economies.” Just over half (55 percent) knew that the Alberta government does not send equalization funds directly to poorer provinces. A majority of respondents either answered incorrectly or said they did not know the answer to the remaining six questions.

Over half of respondents failed our 8-question equalization quiz. Most thought that a

“yes” victory could result in Alberta “withdrawing from the equalization program.”

Perhaps most concerning, only 44 percent of respondents knew that a “yes” victory would not, in fact,  result in Alberta withdrawing from the equalization program. Many seemed misguided about the pretext  for the referendum, as well. Most Albertans fail to understand that the federal government can make  changes to the equalization formula without consulting provinces and that Alberta has greater revenue generating capacity than have-less provinces. A vast majority also believe that “equalization is designed  to help all provinces whose economies are currently struggling,” which neglects the fact that have-more  provinces like Alberta can be struggling yet still above the national average. An even larger proportion of  respondents believed that Quebec receives more equalization funding per capita than any other province,  whereas the province’s share of funds is largest by virtue of its population size. 

Respondents in the South Zone (2.4) scored well below the provincial average (3.1) on the equalization  quiz. Men (3.7) scored higher than women (2.7). People with university degrees (3.4) demonstrated more  knowledge about equalization than those with trades certificates (3.0) or high school education (2.8).

Figure 6. Distribution of Quiz Scores

Table 1. Percentage of Respondents Who Answered Correctly by Quiz Question

Partisan and ideological differences were minimal when it comes to equalization knowledge. People’s  Party of Canada voters scored highest on the quiz (4.0 average), compared to federal Liberal (3.3), federal  NDP (3.2), and Conservative (3.2) voters who scored between 3.2 and 3.3. Provincially, NDP voters (3.3)  scored higher than UCP voters (3.1). Centrists (2.6) scored noticeably lower than those on the left (3.4)  and right (3.4). 

People who intend to vote “no” in the referendum scored higher (3.9) than those who intend to vote  “yes” (3.2). Those that don’t know how they’ll vote (2.2) or won’t vote (2.9) had the lowest levels of knowledge about equalization.

Figure 7. Average Quiz Score (out of 8) by Vote Intention in the Equalization

Conclusion

More Albertans appear prepared to vote “yes” in the referendum on removing equalization from the constitution. Their position appears grounded in a combination of regional, ideological, and partisan considerations. Turnout remains an unknown variable, although “yes” voters appear more motivated than “no” voters to show up at the polls. Albertans’ overall level of knowledge about equalization is strikingly low, disappointingly so on an issue with potential constitutional ramifications.

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between September 21 and October 6, 2021. The survey was deployed online by Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/2YEMObS. Leger co-ordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic criteria for the survey. Survey data is based on 1204 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Jared Wesley, Michelle Maroto, Feodor Snagovsky, and Lisa Young. It was funded in part by a Research Cluster Grant from the Kule Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta.

Endnotes

1. The op-ed was released two days after this survey was completed and was submitted to CBC News before the data from this survey was available to the research team.