Albertans Continue to Abandon UCP in Fourth Wave of COVID-19

Feodor Snagovsky | University of Alberta | feodor.snagovsky@ualberta.ca

October 25, 2021

Support for Alberta’s governing United Conservative Party (UCP) has continued to decline through the final stretch of 2021. Moreover, while minor parties have benefited somewhat from the UCP’s decline, opposition to the governing party has continued to consolidate around the NDP. Premier Jason Kenney’s personal unpopularity continues to pull down his party’s fortunes, but the main driver of the UCP’s continued decline appears to be management of the COVID-19 pandemic as Alberta continues to experience a fourth wave of the virus.

Vote Intentions

When we last surveyed Albertans in March 2021, the NDP had just overtaken the UCP (approximately 39% to 30%). This nine-point gulf has more than doubled. As Figure 1 shows, if an election were held at the end of September or beginning of October, close to twice as many Albertans would have voted NDP (49.5%) compared to UCP (26.9%). About a quarter (23.6%) of decided voters would have voted for a minor party.

Figure 1: Provincial Party Vote Intention (October 2021)

Our question wording and approach has remained consistent over time, which allows us to track vote intention between the last two federal elections in November 2019 and September 2021. As we documented previously, we see clear evidence of the UCP’s decline and the NDP’s ascendancy. The UCP’s decline started before the COVID 19 pandemic, which initially slowed the government’s falling support. However, the second wave of the pandemic was associated with a cratering of support for the UCP, coupled with historically high support for the opposition NDP. The NDP’s popularity was largely associated with their support for stricter COVID-19 restrictions, while the #AlohaGate Christmas travel scandals last winter appeared to further hurt the UCP.

Figure 2: Provincial Party Support (May 2019 – October 2021)

Leadership

Figure 3 shows that Jason Kenney continues to be deeply unpopular, and for the last three surveys, has consistently enjoyed lower approval ratings from voters than Justin Trudeau (who himself is very unpopular in Alberta). By contrast, opposition leader Rachel Notley continues to be the only provincial leader who has an average popularity rating that is above the midpoint of 5.

Figure 3: Leader Popularity (November 2019 – October 2021)

The Role of COVID-19

One of the strongest predictors of party preference we observed in this survey was attitudes towards COVID-19. We asked respondents about their attitudes towards a wide range of pandemic-era issues, including (1) whether current restrictions (as of late September and early October 2021) were too harsh, too lenient, or just right, (2) whether the issue of wearing masks was primarily about personal freedom or primarily about public health, and (3) whether with regards to the pandemic, the worst was behind us or was yet to come.

As Figures 4 and 5 show, each of our respondents’ attitudes towards these issues correlated in predictable ways  with who they would have voted for if an election were held today. Respondents who thought restrictions were  too harsh, that masking was primarily about personal freedom, and that the worst of COVID-19 was behind us  were much more likely to vote for the UCP. By contrast, respondents who thought restrictions were too lenient, that masking was primarily about public health, and that the worst of COVID-19 was yet to come overwhelmingly preferred the NDP.

Figure 4: UCP Support by COVID-19 Pandemic Attitudes (October 2021)

It’s worth noting, however, that while majorities of each of the latter groups supported the NDP, the UCP’s support was much weaker. Even among these more restriction-skeptic respondents, less than half of each group supported the UCP. This underscores the perilous political situation that the UCP finds itself in: while their partisan base appears skeptical of continued COVID-19 restrictions, even the UCP’s attempt to find middle ground between personal freedoms and public health seems to be a bridge too far. By contrast, very few respondents who prefer stricter public health measures would vote for the UCP if an election were held today. This signals voters may see the UCP as “soft on COVID”.

Figure 5: NDP Support by COVID-19 Pandemic Attitudes (October 2021)

The Federal Context

Part of the reason behind the NDP’s continued provincial rise appears to be a rally around the party among federal  Liberal voters. As Figure 6 shows, just over three-quarters of federal Liberal voters would support the provincial  NDP if a provincial election were held tomorrow. This de-coupling of support between the federal and provincial  Liberal parties is notable, considering only about 16% of federal Liberal voters would support that party’s  provincial cousin. Combined with near unanimous (92.5%) support from federal NDP voters and even some tepid  (20.4%) federal Conservative support, the NDP is well-positioned to make electoral gains in the provincial  legislature.  

By contrast, only just over half (55.6%) of federal Conservative voters would support the UCP if a provincial  election were held tomorrow. Considering the strength of CPC support in Alberta, this presents a pressing  challenge for the UCP and illustrates the crux of their electoral problem – voters who want tighter public health  restrictions have defected left to the NDP, while voters who want more personal freedoms have defected right to  minor parties.

Figure 6: Provincial Party Support by Federal Vote in 2021 Election (October 2021)

Key Demographics

The UCP’s decline and the NDP’s rise is so dramatic that it can be seen across the board in every single major  demographic group. Figures 7 and 8 show that more members of groups that traditionally tend to split towards  the UCP – men, wealthier Albertans, those who live in rural areas, white people, and those in middle-age and over  65 – now prefer the NDP over the UCP. Among each of those groups, only rural support is relatively comparable  between the two parties – but even there, the NDP leads by 7 points. By contrast, large segments of traditionally strong demographics for the NDP continue to hold: a majority of lower-income (55%), urban (54%), non-white  (53%) and young Albertans (66%) would vote NDP if an election were held today, including just under half of  women (49.7%).

Figure 7: UCP Support Among Key Groups (October 2021)

Figure 8: NDP Support Among Key Groups (October 2021)

Concluding Thoughts

Alberta’s political landscape continues its seismic shift since the May 2019 provincial election. While well over half of Albertans supported the UCP in that election, if a vote were held today their support would barely number over a quarter of the electorate. By contrast, while only about a third of Albertans voted NDP in 2019, almost half would vote for that party today. There are many reasons for this realignment in Alberta politics, including long-term shifts in political culture that have only become more apparent in the last two decades. However, the short-term reasons for the UCP’s decline and the NDP’s rise appear to be the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and Premier Kenney’s personal unpopularity. With a leadership review set to take place in the Spring and the pandemic (hopefully) continuing to decline as overall vaccination coverage increases, time will tell whether the UCP can arrest their freefall before the 2023 provincial election.

Methodology of the Viewpoint Alberta Survey

The Viewpoint Alberta Survey was conducted between September 21 and October 6, 2021. The survey was  deployed online by Leger. A copy of the survey questions can be found here: https://bit.ly/2YEMObS. Leger coordinates the survey with an online panel system that targets registered panelists that meet the demographic  criteria for the survey. Survey data are based on 1204 responses with a 17-minute average completion time. The  Viewpoint Alberta Survey was led by co-principal investigators Jared Wesley, Michelle Maroto, Feodor Snagovsky, and Lisa Young. It was funded in part by a Research Cluster Grant from the Kule Institute for  Advanced Study (KIAS) at the University of Alberta. 

Online survey methods are currently one of the best ways to quickly solicit responses from a broad range of  people; however, they do have certain limitations that must be noted. First, although they include participants  from many backgrounds, online samples are not always representative of the population and do not offer the  same benefits as fully random samples. People who participate in online surveys likely differ in certain ways  from those who do not. This makes weighting against other population characteristics very important for  accounting for such bias. Second, social desirability bias, which occurs when respondents answer questions  based on how they think they should answer them versus how they really feel, could also affect survey  responses to sensitive questions. This is harder to account for in survey analysis and must always be considered.  Third, sample size for certain subgroups also limited our ability to fully explore variation across different  outcomes. Future surveys with larger sample sizes and those targeted to specific groups could help to overcome this limitation.  

In order to address these limitations, all estimates presented in this data brief are weighted using a set of survey  sampling weights. These weights are based on the respondent’s age, education, gender, and region of the  province. However, bias might also occur in relation to other observed and unobserved factors. We also include  error bars around estimates and provide 95% confidence intervals when possible.